Which Cy Young hopeful is most likely to rebound from their early funk?
With home runs on a perpetual rise in a league increasingly made up of young superstars who can mash, it's tough for Cy Young-caliber pitchers not named Clayton Kershaw to be consistently brilliant.
That's not to say starters - particularly the league's elite - should have their performance discredited after a few bad outings. What becomes interesting, however, is trying to determine which projected Cy Young contenders can snap out of their current funk and which should be more concerned.
Here are a group of pitchers that have won the award, or performed to that level in recent years, and we'll try to forecast which of them have the best shot at overcoming their poor starts.
7. Kyle Hendricks, Cubs
Hendricks emerged as an under-the-radar Cy Young contender last season with the Chicago Cubs, thanks to an exceptional season.
He posted a league-leading 2.13 ERA, finished third in NL Cy Young voting, and ended the postseason with a 1.42 ERA. So far, he's been unable to recapture that magic. The 27-year-old has posted a 6.19 ERA and 5.82 FIP in three starts, his walk percentage is up (10.1), and hitters have combined to a 40.8 hard batted ball percentage.
Never an overpowering pitcher, his fastball usually tops out at 89 mph, but this season it's dropped to 86 mph, which has resulted in four home runs allowed. To his credit, he's still generating a ton of ground balls, but there's not much else going right for Hendricks at the moment.
6. Rick Porcello, Red Sox
Last year's AL Cy Young recipient hasn't lived up to the label in 2017. Although the 22-game winner was terrific last season, Porcello was the beneficiary of a league-high 6.66 runs of support per game from Red Sox hitters. Not only have the runs not been there this season, he hasn't done himself any favors.
His command is still good, but he's served up five home runs in four starts and is allowing 11.8 hits per nine innings. Regression was expected heading into 2017 and so far, Porcello is proving skeptics right.
5. Gerrit Cole, Pirates
The most concerning number coming out of Cole's early performances are his home run totals. The Pirates ace has given up five long balls after surrendering only seven all of last year.
The rest of his numbers remain largely in line with 2016, so Cole should be able to figure it out eventually. One promising sign is his fastball velocity, which is up to 96 mph this year. That's great news for an ace coming off a trio of DL stints last year with elbow concerns.
4. Johnny Cueto, Giants
Cueto will be relied on now more than ever in Madison Bumgarner's absence and if his first four starts are any indication, the Giants may be in for an extended period of sorrow.
The veteran starter combined to an elite 2.79 FIP last season, but has performed to a poor 5.13 mark in 2017, including five home runs allowed. The Giants have the luxury of deploying Cueto at home in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball, which should reduce his home run totals, and with a good track record of success, Cueto should pitch better eventually.
3. Jose Quintana, White Sox
This would certainly be more alarming if Quintana wasn't only four starts in, but the defacto White Sox ace has gotten off to an 0-4 start and metrics aren't on his side.
One of the most consistent starters in baseball over the past several years, Quintana's walk rate is a career worst 11.7 percent to start the season and his 5.63 FIP certainly doesn't bode well for him, especially since it's almost a guarantee he'll be traded at some point this season.
I have faith he'll turn it around thanks to a terrific track record, so make me look brilliant, Jose.
2. Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees
After his first start of the year resulted in a career-high seven earned runs, Tanaka has settled down, combining to a 3.44 ERA and 16 strikeouts. Still, the typically great Yankees ace is better than this.
Since 2014, Tanaka is among the AL's best in several categories and despite pitching through a UCL injury in his elbow, he's been a wildly effective starter. With the possibility of him opting out at the end of this season, Tanaka needs to pitch great to maximize his value. Despite a rocky start, he'll be back to form soon.
1. Justin Verlander, Tigers
No surprise here, as Verlander has received Cy Young votes seven times throughout his storied career, winning the hardware in 2011 and coming up just short last year.
His start to 2017 has people concerned and that's fair if you base it off his 6.04 ERA and his BB/9 (4.44). There was speculation among the Tigers, as well as Verlander himself, that he's been tipping his pitches.
Regardless, the veteran right-hander is still one of the game's most reliable arms, and the Tigers will need him to be on his game if they want to maximize their window to win. Expect Verlander to get on track sooner rather than later.
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)