Brandon Marshall set for huge bounceback fantasy season with Giants
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Here are the fantasy implications of free-agent WR Brandon Marshall reaching an agreement with the New York Giants:
For new #Giants WR Brandon Marshall, who is with his new team today, it’s a 2-year deal worth $12M, source says.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 8, 2017
Marshall replaces WR Victor Cruz as part of the Giants' vaunted wide receiver trio, led by Odell Beckham Jr. and supplemented by sophomore-to-be Sterling Shepard. Here's how the Giants' receiver production was split last season:
| Name | TGTS | REC | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beckham Jr. | 169 | 101 | 1367 | 10 |
| Shepard | 105 | 65 | 683 | 8 |
| Cruz | 72 | 39 | 586 | 1 |
The rest of the team accounted for just 1,391 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.
Marshall took a big step back in his second year with the New York Jets, totaling just 59 receptions on 128 targets for 788 yards and three touchdowns. It was a stark contrast from his 2015 season:
| TGTS | REC | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 174 | 109 | 1502 | 14 |
Marshall can't shoulder all the blame in what was an outright disaster for the Jets last season. No. 2 receiver Eric Decker suffered a season-ending injury early on, while the quarterback carousel of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty and Geno Smith completed a total of just 56.5 percent of passes. By contrast, Giants QB Eli Manning completed 63.0 percent of his passes last season.
Per FantasyFootballCalculator.com, Marshall's ADP is 6.05, a far drop from the consensus second-round pick he was last season. He is the WR27, being selected between Pittsburgh Steelers WR Martavis Bryant and Indianapolis Colts WR Donte Moncrief. This is sure to rise significantly.
At 6-foot-4, Marhsall is easily the tallest of the three receivers, with both Beckham and Shepard checking in at under six feet. Marshall is sure to see a rise in red-zone targets, with the Giants making many more trips to the opponents' end zone than the Jets did last season. While New York has been linked to rumors for free-agent RB Adrian Peterson, they're set to enter the season with sophomore-to-be Paul Perkins at the top of the RB depth chart.
With the potential for 1,000 yards and 10-plus touchdowns for the second time in three years, Marshall should rise to be a top-15 receiver and return to being a pick from within the first three rounds.
(Photo courtesy Action Images)
The Other Guys
The move could bolster the stock of Beckham, as he'll be able to face fewer double teams with defenses having to respect Marshall more than they did either Cruz or Shepard in 2016. Even is he sees a drop from his 169 targets last season, he could gain more total yards and remains a near lock for 10-plus touchdowns.
The move more so hurts Shepard's immediate value. While he held off Cruz to be the team's No. 2 receiver last season, he'll drop to third in the pecking order behind Marshall. Those who own him in dynasty/keeper leagues will suffer the most.
If this is the case, try trading him to a fellow owner in your league who is looking to make the 2017 season a rebuilding year. Sacrifice the long-term prospect for someone who could offer more help in the upcoming season.
Here you go, Eli
The 2016 season was a three-year low for Manning in both yards and touchdowns, while his 16 interceptions were a high for the same time span. At 36 years of age, his play could be naturally diminishing but there is something to be said for the fact that he was taller than all his receivers.
Marshall provides Manning with his first big-body threat since WR Plaxico Burress, who had two 1,000-yard seasons and two years of 10-plus TDs with Manning from 2005-2007. While Burress never had to combat a receiver of Beckham's caliber cutting into his workload, Manning is a fan of jump balls, where Marshall holds the advantage more often than not.
Per PFC, Manning is being selected as the QB16, behind Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston and ahead of Cincinnati Bengals WR Andy Dalton. The addition of Marshall should lead to more touchdowns and fewer interceptions, thrusting Manning toward QB10 which is currently occupied by Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson.
Here's a look at how the departure will affect the fantasy prospects of the Jets' receiving corps.