Bracketology: USC-Miami, Xavier-Michigan matchups highlight potential 1st round
Every Monday, for the remainder of the season, theScore will present a look at how the upcoming March Madness tournament will shake out with a prediction of the bracket. This will rank teams 1-16 in each of the four regions, and include the potential opponents for the tournament-opening First Four.
The top seeds are beginning to solidify their respective positions. Only two teams in the AP top 25 (Florida State, South Carolina) lost to unranked opponents over the weekend. Duke continues to surge, Gonzaga hasn't played in a close game in months, and the Big 12 may have to consider handing the Jayhawks a regular-season bye straight to the conference tournament. Kansas has made their dominance look positively routine.
A pack of early season underachievers could prove to be serious headaches for top seeds in the second round. Michigan State, Iowa State, and Arkansas have the kind of talent to bust more than a few brackets during a surprising March run. Monmouth, UNC Wilmington, and Middle Tennessee highlight a strong crop of mid-majors with serious Cinderella potential.
West Region
(1) Gonzaga vs. (16) North Carolina Central
(8) USC vs. (9) Miami (FL)
(5) Purdue vs. (12) Nevada
(4) Butler vs. (13) Monmouth
(6) SMU vs. (11) Kansas State
(3) Florida State vs. (14) North Carolina Asheville
(7) Minnesota vs. (10) Arkansas
(2) Oregon vs. (15) CSU Bakersfield
Gonzaga continues its march towards a perfect season. The Zags haven't played in a game decided by less than 10 points since their seven-point win at Arizona on Dec 3. A potential second round matchup with USC would likely bring the Mark Few critics out of the woodwork. The Trojans don't beat themselves and would pose a real threat to the Bulldogs in the Round of 32.
The other side of the region has considerably more upset potential. FSU has a handful of strange losses, including its recent 17-point loss to Pitt. UNC Asheville has the guard play to catch the Seminoles napping. Arkansas could be a Sweet 16 sleeper for a few reasons. Moses Kingsley is one of the best bigs in the projected bracket and their perimeter shooting has improved greatly over their current three-game winning streak.
East Region
(1) Villanova vs. (16) Texas Southern/Mt. St. Mary’s
(8) Oklahoma State vs. (9) Virginia Tech
(5) Cincinnati vs. (12) UNC Wilmington
(4) West Virginia vs. (13) Vermont
(6) Notre Dame vs. (11) Seton Hall
(3) Florida vs. (14) Princeton
(7) Northwestern vs. (10) Wichita State
(2) North Carolina vs. (15) Florida Gulf Coast
Things couldn't be lining up much better for Nova. If they can finish the season strong, a one-seed and a potential second weekend trip to Madison Square Garden would be their reward. Don't just mindlessly advance Jay Wright to the Sweet 16 though. Oklahoma State and its backcourt could prove to be an extremely difficult out in the second round. An old Big East rivalry could be renewed between Cincinnati and West Virginia in the Round of 32. Both teams have played Final Four level basketball already this season and both play highly effective defense. WVU leads the nation in forced turnovers and Cincy surrenders a paltry 60.9 ppg.
Casual fans should cross their fingers for a Tar Heel-Shocker showdown in the second round. If those two offenses clash, to borrow a phrase from Brazilian soccer fans, you’ll be in store for a "beautiful game." Both offenses could crack the 90s. The Gators lost John Egbunu to a torn ACL, which makes them mortal against a team with a quality frontcourt. The Irish's V.J. Beachem just sat up in his chair.
Midwest Region
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Weber State/UC Davis
(8) Dayton vs. (9) Michigan State
(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) Akron
(4) Virginia vs. (13) Valpo
(6) St. Mary’s (CA) vs. (11) Wake Forest/Syracuse
(3) Kentucky vs. (14) Bucknell
(7) Xavier vs. (10) Michigan
(2) Arizona vs. (15) North Dakota State
The Jayhawks essentially sealed up their 13th straight regular-season Big XII title once they completed their season sweep of Baylor. To give KU's reign of dominance some context, the last time a program other than KU won the conference was Oklahoma State in 2004. Tony Allen, now 35, is the only member of that team still playing professionally. A second-round tussle with Tom Izzo and the Spartans would be a ratings bonanza.
When the play-in game between 11 seeds was introduced, skeptics argued that an extra team wasn’t really necessary or worthy. History has proven otherwise with numerous play-in winners making the second weekend. Wake Forest's John Collins has been so impressive at center that it wouldn't be shocking to see him put the Deacs on his back during an upset or two. A second weekend matchup between Arizona and Kentucky could involve four or five top-20 NBA draft picks.
South Region
(1) Louisville vs. (16) New Orleans
(8) Iowa State vs. (9) California
(5) Creighton vs. (12) Middle Tennessee
(4) UCLA vs. (13) UT Arlington
(6) Maryland vs. (11) Marquette/TCU
(3) Duke vs. (14) Belmont
(7) South Carolina vs. (10) VCU
(2) Baylor vs. (15) Furman
Iowa State and Cal have been playing more like AP top-25 squads than bubble teams. The Cyclones’ backcourt and the Golden Bears' frontcourt could equally give Louisville problems. If the Cards make it to the second weekend their reward in this scenario would be a shootout with Lonzo Ball and UCLA. When the Bruins are clicking offensively they're arguably the most dominant offensive team that college basketball has seen in years.
If WVU-Cincy wet your appetite for old rivals, how about Maryland-Duke in the second round? Duke appears to have "figured it out" and Maryland is as good a team as any in the country when Melo Trimble is feeling it. Harry Giles would be overwhelmed with Baylor's front line but a Gamecock upset in the Round of 32 could spare him that test.