So you want to do an early MFL10: things to consider
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So you had a great experience playing in an MFL10 for the first time in 2016 and can't wait to get a head start on 2017, despite the NFL offseason being little more than a few days old? You're in luck - you can begin the process of drafting a team as early as mid-February.
As can be expected, the earlier you draft a team, the less information about the upcoming season you have to work with. It takes some more homework than usual, but here are some things to consider if you make the conscious decision to join an MFL10 in February or March:
Not sure what exactly an MFL10 is? Read our primer.
The schedule won't be announced until April
A list of each team's 2017 home and away opponents is available on the NFL's website, but exactly when each game will be played as well as when a team's bye week will be is a guessing game.
At the very least, you can examine each team's opponents and see who gets to play 2016's bottom-feeders, as well as out-of-division matchups. San Francisco, for example, faces the weak AFC South and makes visits to Indianapolis and Houston, while drawing Jacksonville and Tennessee at home.
This may make the prospect of drafting a player from the rebuilding 49ers, such as RB Carlos Hyde, more palatable.
Week 17 depth charts won't carry over
Don't make the mistake of assuming unheralded players who ended the season in positions of fantasy prominence will automatically open 2017 in those same roles.
Detroit Lions RB Zach Zenner ended 2016 as his team's last running back standing, but Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah will again be healthy enough to provide competition in 2017. San Diego Los Angeles Chargers WR Tyrell Williams took advantage of an injury to Keenan Allen to post a 1,000-yard campaign. While there are too many such players to mention, an emergence due to injury one season won't necessarily carry over to the next.
While attrition and turnover run rampant in the NFL, it's important not to overrate a player based on how they ended the season. Think about how they might fit into their team's plans going forward and whether their role could be under threat from future additions or players returning from injury.
Don't forget about impending free agents...
Like the schedule, there's a lot of uncertainty regarding where free agents will wind up. Free agency begins in March, and even if the elite names like Pittsburgh Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell and Washington Redskins QB Kirk Cousins end up staying with their old teams, the movement of complementary players can shuffle depth charts throughout the league.
...or the NFL draft
The draft doesn't take place until late April, so there's nearly a three-month period between when MFL10s open in mid-February and when a fresh crop of NCAA talent is injected into NFL rosters.
College players expected to be first-round selections include Clemson's duo of QB DeShaun Watson and WR Mike Williams, LSU RB Leonard Fournette and Miami TE David Njoku.
Even before they've been officially drafted by a professional team, prospects can be speculatively added to an MFL roster. Of course, not all college draftees will be entering into a perfect marriage of team and skill-set, like the pairing of the Dallas Cowboys' elite offensive line and RB Ezekiel Elliott.
If you're not a big follower of the college game, some cursory research is recommended before pulling the trigger on a future pro, especially one expected to be an early-round selection.
Guard against possible retirements
While prominent players like Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger and Arizona Cardinals QB Carson Palmer have already made noise about possible retirements, it may be best to avoid selecting 30-somethings like Chargers TE Antonio Gates, Indianapolis Colts RB Frank Gore, Lions WR Anquan Boldin and others for fear of ending up with a wasted roster spot once the new season rolls around.
All three showed they still have something to offer fantasy-wise this past season, but who knows if one or all of them will follow the lead of Baltimore Ravens WR Steve Smith Sr. and call it a career.
Beware the in-flux Steelers
Aside from the aforementioned Roethlisberger and Bell, the Steelers' fantasy-friendly offense is rife with dilemmas for early drafters.
WR Martavis Bryant may have completed his season-long suspension, but he's not a lock to be officially reinstated in 2017. TE Ladarius Green played just six regular season games and then suffered a concussion in the playoffs, casting doubt on his future. WR Sammie Coates was a key contributor in the first half of 2016, but fell off the radar in the latter part of the season due to a hand injury. He recently underwent surgery.
Assuming Bell and Roethlisberger stay in town, they'll remain safe selections, but predicting the fantasy viability of their supporting cast may prove to be a difficult task.