Rosenfels predicts what to expect from Patriots', Falcons' schemes
Sage Rosenfels is a former 12-year NFL quarterback who writes, does radio, and podcasts about the NFL and college football.
As a former NFL player, I regularly get asked who I believe will win football games. Generally, my answer is: “It’s too hard to pick NFL games” and I pass on the proposition. With so many games decided by less than a touchdown, a couple of plays in a particular game can be the difference between winning and losing. Therefore, I’d rather break down schemes and see how they compare, particularly when games feature two evenly matched teams like those in the Super Bowl this year.
Let’s start with the Atlanta Falcons offense versus the New England Patriots defense. On paper, this is the most important aspect of this game. Atlanta has the No. 1 offense in the NFL in yards and scoring. New England is the No. 1 defense in the league in points allowed. Something will have to give on Sunday. Though the Patriots were lucky to play against sub-par quarterbacks for much of the year, they still only gave up 19 points per game against three top-10 offenses (Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo twice). This defense has been underappreciated all season because it lacks superstar names, and everybody always refers to Bill Belichick as the reason for its success. Both of these assumptions are true. The brilliance of Belichick is understanding that the whole is much greater than the sum of the individual pieces. The real question is what scheme will the Patriots utilize to shut down (slow down) this Atlanta attack?
I keep hearing the talking heads say Belichick will take away Atlanta’s top threat: Julio Jones. This is much easier said than done. No individual player on any NFL defense can stop Jones by himself. So, to prevent Julio from taking over the game, the Pats' D would have to double him in some fashion. There are multiple ways to do this. One is by putting a safety over the top of Jones and have the cornerback play underneath. This is a surefire way of slowing him, but it also opens up numerous holes in the rest of the defense. If the Patriots double Jones, it means that Mohamed Sanu and the other Atlanta receivers will have the rest of field to work with in getting open. Since Kyle Shanahan is one of the most creative offensive minds in the game, and the fact he loves using play action to take shots down the field, Sanu could exploit the New England defensive back who would have to cover him with no help over the top. As an example of how well Shanahan likes to push the ball down the field, Matt Ryan had a career high in passing yards while attempting the third-fewest throws of his career in 2016. His 9.3 yards per attempt were far and away above anyone else in the NFL. The Falcons can throw it deep, and this is no doubt concerning to Bill Belichick.
If the Patriots decide to play conservatively with two safeties deep to protect against the big plays of the Falcons, this opens them up to being vulnerable against the run. Atlanta was fifth in the NFL in rushing this season despite having the fewest attempts of anyone in the top eight. The Falcons can run the football extremely well, and if New England gives them a clean box (two safeties deep), they can still score points, all while keeping the ball away from Tom Brady.
This is one of the most important aspects of this game. What does Belichick decide to do to slow down Atlanta? Will he attempt to stop Jones, which opens his team up for the big play on the other side of the field? Will he try to prevent Atlanta’s deep passing game while risking being slowly bled to death by Atlanta’s running attack. If I had to guess, stopping the run with no safety help is the top priority for the Patriots. I can almost hear Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia screaming at the defense during run game drills this week. Though this will hurt New England’s pass rush, stopping the run should be their top priority. If the Patriots can do it without secondary support, Atlanta will be forced to drop back and pass. Atlanta’s strengths are, in order, running the football, play-action pass, and straight drop back. If the run game isn’t a factor, then the play action isn’t as effective. Belichick’s goal has to be to stop the run first and figure out the rest later. This is the game within the game that I find fascinating.
The other matchup, which isn’t as complex, is the New England offense versus the Atlanta defense. First, let’s check out the numbers. The Patriots were fourth in the NFL in offense, while Atlanta’s defense was the biggest weakness on the team. The Falcons finished the season with the 27th-ranked scoring defense in the league. Obviously, this gives the advantage to New England. I’d like to go a bit deeper into these simple rankings.
First, Atlanta plays in a division against three extremely talented quarterbacks. Most NFL teams would say they’d be happy to have Drew Brees, Cam Newton, or Jameis Winston as their quarterback. This Atlanta defense has to face these quarterbacks six games a year. Also, since Atlanta led the league in offense, they were winning in the second half for a majority of games this year. When this occurs, winning teams many times give up cheap yards and points by playing conservatively. Atlanta’s defense is not complex, and when you're trying to slow rather than stop an offense, there are many easy completions to be had for opposing quarterbacks.
The simplicity of Atlanta’s defense should not be understated. Head coach Dan Quinn has been in numerous styles of defense and has implemented a scheme very similar to the one used during his previous coaching stop in Seattle. For those paying attention to the NFL over the last five years, Seattle has regularly been in the top five in defense. Since this scheme isn’t complex (relying on fairly basic coverages), talent is at a premium for it to be successful. Defensively, Atlanta hasn’t yet reached the talent level of Seattle, which causes this style of defense to be less effective.
There are two things vital to this Seattle/Atlanta scheme. Stopping the run on early downs, and rushing the quarterback in passing situations. They don’t try to confuse offenses but rather line up and play fundamentally sound football. Pass-rushers are a necessity for this philosophy to work properly.
When I put this scheme up against New England’s offense and Brady, I’m encouraged for Atlanta. First, Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels have seen every blitz and coverage every invented. There have only been a few NFL games in Brady's career where you could say he looked confused. Second, Brady has lost two Super Bowls against this type of defense. Both in 2007 and 2011, the New York Giants implemented a similar defensive style. In both of those games, New York’s defensive line stopped the run and harassed Brady relentlessly. In their only loss of the year with Brady available to play, Quinn's former team, the Seahawks, traveled to Foxboro and took it to the Patriots. This scheme bodes well for Atlanta. The Falcons don’t yet have the personnel to be a top-10 defense, but their system is the right fit for this game.
Football media members love to break down matchups of individual players which I thoroughly enjoy reading (and writing about). If you can look deeper at football philosophy and science, you will see there is much more going on than you initially realize. Football is a complex game, and for every action there is a reaction. This is a sport of physics and we have two coaching staffs which understand the fine details of this science as good as anyone in the NFL.