NFL Championship Sunday action report: Public heavy on Packers and Patriots

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Conference championship weekend has arrived in the NFL, with four stout quarterbacks in two games competing for one big prize: a trip to the Super Bowl, set for Feb. 5 in Houston. Covers talks about where the action is with Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, and Mike Jerome, lines manager for offshore sportsbook TopBet.eu.

NFC Championship Game

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons – Open: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5

Back on Nov. 23, after Green Bay had lost four consecutive games, superstar quarterback Aaron Rodgers said, “I feel like we can run the table.” Ever since then, that’s what the Packers have done, racking up eight straight victories on the field while going a stout 7-1 ATS. That includes winning and covering in the wild-card and divisional playoff rounds, with Rodgers working his late-game magic last week as the fourth-seeded Pack (12-6 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) edged No. 1 Dallas at the wire 34-31 as a 5.5-point road underdog.

Atlanta is no slouch, either, sporting the league’s highest-scoring offense (33.8 ppg) behind quarterback Matt Ryan. The second-seeded Falcons (12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS) have won five in a row (4-1 ATS) and six of their last seven SU, breezing past No. 3 seed Seattle 36-20 as a 6.5-point home chalk last week to reach the NFC final.

The opening line of 4 went up to 4.5 by Monday.

“That’s due to some sharp action that’s come in early on Atlanta,” Simbal said. The line has continued trending upward on sharp action and is now at Falcons -6 at CG books, including at The Cosmopolitan, M and the Venetian, but Simbal believes some Green Bay public cash could roll in this weekend. “For sure, I think that the public’s gonna really be on the Packers moneyline specifically. They’re just on this Aaron Rodgers streak, riding the wave of the Packers. You’ve got some pros laying Falcons.

“If somehow we can get the Falcons to win this game by a field goal, the books will be very happy.”

Especially after being on the short end the first two weekends of the playoffs, with bettors getting the best of the books.

TopBet.eu also opened Atlanta -4 and had reached -5 by Friday afternoon, where the number remained on Saturday for Sunday’s 3:05 p.m. Eastern kickoff.

“On Tuesday morning, we got a sharp bet on Atlanta -4 (-105), so we moved the game to Falcons -4.5 (-105),” Jerome said, noting Friday afternoon, his shop made a market move to 5, though the bulk of pointspread bets and moneyline bets favor Green Bay. “Sixty-four percent of the cash and 68 percent of bets against the spread are taking the Packers. The moneyline opened Atlanta -175/GreenBay +155, and it’s now -210/+175. Sixty-nine percent of moneyline bets and 73 percent of cash are backing the Pack.”

The total on this matchup has also drawn a lot of attention and will likely end up as the highest in playoff history. CG opened at 59.5, spent much of the week at 60.5, but is now seeing a deluge that Simbal predicted, driving that number up to 61.5 by Saturday.

AFC Championship Game

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots – Open: -5.5; Move: -6

New England not only posted the best SU record in the regular season, but also the best ATS mark, at 14-2 and 13-3 respectively to earn the AFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage. Tom Brady and the Patriots upped those marks to 15-2 and 14-3 by rolling over Houston last week 34-16 laying 16 points in Foxboro.

That said, Pittsburgh is arguably the hottest team among the four remaining, as it rides a nine-game SU win streak into this game (7-1-1 ATS), winning and cashing in the wild-card and divisional rounds. Last week in frigid Kansas City, the Steelers (13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) rode Chris Boswell’s six field goals to an 18-16 victory as a 2.5-point pup.

These two teams met Oct. 23, with host New England winning 27-16, but Pittsburgh was without Ben Roethlisberger for that matchup.

“There’s been a lot of public action so far on New England,” Simbal said, noting the sharps might not get involved much in a game between two very public teams. “They haven’t yet, and I don’t really expect a lot from them in this case at all. The interesting thing about this game is you would figure the public would lay the points with New England or take the Steelers on the moneyline, but we have not seen very much Steelers action at all.

“The public has laid even the moneyline with New England. The public is in love with New England here, so I would expect us to be a big fan of the Steelers come Sunday.”

TopBet.eu has been stuck on Patriots -6 all week long and is also seeing nothing but public dollars for this 6:40 p.m. Eastern kickoff Sunday.

“No sharp action on the AFC title game at the moment, as the Patriots opened -6 and still remain at that number,” Jerome said. “Sixty-eight percent of cash on the spread and 71 percent of bets on the spread are backing the Patriots. I don’t see us moving off of 6 on the game, and if anything, we will juice the Pats a bit to -6 (-115).”

Indeed, New England’s price adjusted to -115 on Saturday. However, unlike at CG books, moneyline bettors are taking a look at Pittsburgh.

“Sixty percent of cash and 65 percent of bets on the moneyline are taking the Steelers +210, which was the opening moneyline (Pats -250),” Jerome said.