Great quarterbacks make home teams great bets in AFC Championship Game
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As it pertains to Conference Championship weekend, here’s what the AFC and NFC have in common: The home team has emerged victorious in each of the last three AFC and NFC Conference Championships.
Outside of that narrow three-year window, the similarities between the two conferences are few and far between. From an against-the-spread perspective, the home team in the AFC is 7-3 over the last ten conference championship games, while the home team in the NFC is just 4-5-1 over the last ten conference championship games. A similar trend emerges from a straight-up perspective as well, as the home team in the AFC is 9-1 over the last ten conference championship matchups, while the home team in the NFC is a mere 5-4 over the last nine conference championship showdowns.
Perhaps the discrepancy between the two conferences has something to do with the quarterback position. The last 13 AFC Championships have been won by the following four quarterbacks:
Tom Brady: 5
Peyton Manning: 4
Ben Roethlisberger: 3
Joe Flacco: 1
Let’s compare that list of four names with the quarterbacks who have won an NFC Championship over the last 13 years:
Russell Wilson: 2
Eli Manning: 2
Cam Newton: 1
Colin Kaepernick: 1
Aaron Rodgers: 1
Drew Brees: 1
Kurt Warner: 1
Rex Grossman: 1
Matt Hasselbeck: 1
Donovan McNabb: 1
Jake Delhomme: 1
Yup, you read that correctly. It does, in fact, say “Rex Grossman.”
Thank goodness this year’s conference championship games feature a combined seven Vince Lombardi Trophies, four Super Bowl MVP awards and four NFL MVP awards.
CURRENT SUPER BOWL LI ODDS
*Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
New England Patriots: 5/4 (Opened: 8/1)
Atlanta Falcons: 5/2 (Opened: 40/1)
Green Bay Packers: 4/1 (Opened: 10/1)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 9/2 (Opened: 8/1)
SHARP MONEY VS. PUBLIC MONEY: BEHIND THE COUNTER
In an effort to gain a better understanding of how the wagering market is currently approaching Conference Championship weekend, Covers.com reached out to both Jeff Sherman, who currently serves as Manager of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (@golfodds), and Dave Mason, who currently serves as the Sportsbook Brand Manager for offshore shop BetOnline.ag (@DaveMasonBOL).
Which positions have the sharp bettors established?
Sherman: “So far, the sharps have laid Falcons -4 with us. Nothing else to report on that front at this time.”
Mason: “We took some sharp action on both Atlanta -4 and Pittsburgh +6.”
Which positions have the public bettors established?
Sherman: “The public has been playing the ‘P & P’ combination, with the Packers moneyline connected to the Patriots minus the points. This has been a common theme so far.”
Mason: “There’s a ton of early action coming in, with 68 percent of early bettors taking the Packers plus the points. In addition, 76 percent of early bettors have jumped on the Atlanta-Green Bay over. We got killed on the Packers moneyline last week and will be rooting against them again this Sunday, as 90 percent of bets placed are on Green Bay to win outright. In the second game, the public will be riding the Patriots as usual, with about 67 percent of current bets placed on this game siding with New England.”
Where is your biggest exposure in regards to Super Bowl futures?
Sherman: “We are in good shape with all four teams to win the Super Bowl, but Green Bay would be our least desired result at this point.”
Mason: “The Packers are a small liability. Any other franchise would be a winner for the house.”
Have you set advanced lines for each of the four potential Super Bowl matchups?
Sherman: “We do not have advanced lines up at the moment, but in a roundtable discussion we made the following: Patriots -3 vs. Falcons, Patriots -4 vs. Packers, Steelers -1 vs. Packers, Steelers pick ‘em vs. Falcons.”
Mason: “Our current Super Bowl lines are Patriots -3.5 vs. Falcons, Patriots -3.5 vs. Packers, Steelers pick ‘em vs. Packers, Falcons -1 vs. Steelers.”
Which two teams do you predict will be playing in the Super Bowl?
Sherman: “I’m expecting the Patriots to play the Falcons, as I’m going with the higher rated home sides.”
Mason: “I’ve got the Patriots taking on the Packers.”
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP RAMBLINGS FROM A MADMAN
Green Bay Packers: No lie, I’ve watched that 36-yard, fourth quarter completion Aaron Rodgers threw tight end Jared Cook in last Sunday’s win over Dallas at least 25 times over the past week and still can’t figure out how that was humanly possible. Perhaps Rodgers is not of this planet. And perhaps Dallas head coach Jason Garrett shouldn’t have had quarterback Dak Prescott spike the ball at the Green Bay 40-yard line with 47 seconds remaining in the game. Moronic. Back to reality: If the Packers want any chance of taking the field in Houston in just over two weeks, it will have to be the Green Bay defense that steps up and wins this football game. Take note that the Packers are 5-0 ATS over their last five games played in the month of January.
Atlanta Falcons: Will offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan’s decision to accept the head coaching position with the San Francisco 49ers serve as a distraction for either him or the team? And how, exactly, do you go about betting against the Falcons when they are playing in the Georgia Dome, as Atlanta is averaging an absurd 35.1 points per game at home this season? Be advised that the Falcons have covered the number in four of their last five games overall.
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers have dropped seven of their last nine matchups with the Patriots and have spent the week answering questions about wide receiver Antonio Brown and his Sunday night social media mishap. Meanwhile, the Patriots have spent the week focused on their sixth consecutive AFC Championship appearance. The 2017 NFL postseason has been dominated by elite quarterback play and Ben Roethlisberger has been anything but elite over his last six starts, with just eight touchdown passes to eleven interceptions. Take note that the Steelers are just 4-11 ATS over their last 15 showdowns with the Patriots.
New England Patriots: Tom Brady got his ass kicked in last Saturday’s win over Houston, as freak of nature Jadeveon Clowney spent the better part of four quarters making himself right at home in the New England backfield. That issue will need to get rectified in a hurry if Tom Terrific wants any shot at winning a fifth Vince Lombardi Trophy. The Patriots are 4-1 ATS over their last five home playoff games and 14-3 ATS over their last 17 games overall. However, it’s absolutely worth noting that New England is an abysmal 1-6 ATS over its last seven Conference Championship matchups.
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP PROP BET OF THE WEEK
Prop: Total points scored by the Pittsburgh Steelers: 22.5 (-110 both ways)
Pick: OVER 22.5
Why: The Steelers have registered 24 or more points in nine of their last ten outings and are likely walking into another shootout situation that currently features a Las Vegas total of 50.5 points. Be advised that the over is 21-7-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 29 games played in the month of January and 13-5 in New England’s last 18 games played in the month of January. This prop should also be helped by the fact that the Patriots are currently priced as a 6-point favorite, which means the Steelers may be forced to press the action in the fourth quarter if they find themselves playing from behind.
TREND OF THE WEEK
The OVER is a perfect 9-0 in Atlanta home games this season. In addition, the OVER has cashed in six consecutive Green Bay Packers games.