5 essential betting stats for NFL Conference Championship Sunday
When looking for essential and historical betting stats, the first order of business is usually to identify something unique or eye-opening about each matchup. Well, there are plenty of interesting angles heading into Conference Championship Sunday, so we plugged some requests into the Covers Betting Data and Results Supercomputer (not a real thing... it's just a database) and it returned some very juicy results.
Over in NFL games with high betting totals
Everyone in the betting community (public, sharps and oddsmakers) are talking about the total for the NFC Championship Game between the Green Bay Packers and the Atlanta Falcons. Depending on your book, the current total is either 60, 60.5, or 61. Whichever current number you are dealing with it remains within the parameters as the highest playoff total on record and the second highest for any NFL game (regular season or playoffs).
With all of that attention on the Over/Under, of course, we had to dig out some stats. The most compelling data that was spit out by the Covers Betting Data and Results Supercomputer was the fact that there have been 12 NFL games (regular season or playoffs) that closed with betting totals of 57.5 or higher and 10 of those 12 games cashed tickets on the Over.
Over in Conference Championship games played in domes
This stat was a little bit surprising - during the last 15 years of NFL football (since 2001-02 season) there have been only six Conference Championship games played in domed stadiums. We've had a couple of games in Indianapolis, one in Atlanta, one in Phoenix, one in New Orleans, and one in St. Louis.
Of those six Conference Championship games played indoors over the past 15 years, there have been none that have gone Under the closing total. That's right! Over is a perfect 6-0 in those climate-controlled contests.
Home teams cover in games with massive betting totals
Sticking with this fascinating Over/Under number in Atlanta, big betting totals can also impact the final ATS results. When scanning the games with the loftiest Over/Under figures, another number that jumped off the page is the fact that the home team is 7-1 both straight up and against the spread in the last eight playoff games with closing totals of 55 or higher.
The reasoning could be that higher scoring games create a more frenzied playing environment in the stadium which definitely favors the home team. Whatever the reason - visiting teams definitely hate having to deal with those hostile environments on the road in the playoffs.
Over in Patriots playoff home games
Switching gears to the AFC Championship Game, we are all well aware that the New England Patriots have been in this position quite often. In fact, this Sunday versus the Pittsburgh Steelers will be the Patriots' 33rd playoff game over the last 16 seasons. That's insane!
When you narrow those 33 games down to playoff games played at Gillette Stadium you see a definite trend when it relates to the total. Since the Tom Brady knee injury in 2008-09 the Pats have played 11 playoff home games - Over has cashed in nine. Within that 9-2 Over run it's also worth noting that Over has cashed in the last five.
Brady versus Big Ben = Patriots win (especially at home)
"Tom Terrific" Brady versus "Big Ben" Roethlisberger. It's the quarterback matchup most people wanted to see in the AFC title game (unless you're a Raiders, Texans, Dolphins, or Chiefs fan). The Steelers and Patriots have met quite a few times since Brady stole Drew Bledsoe's job back in 2001 (11 times to be exact, including AFC Championship games in 2001-02 and 2004-05) so we asked the Covers Supercomputer to grab us those 11 games. But what about the Matt Cassel, Kordell Stewart, and Landry Jones games? Yeah, get those out of there!
What we are left with are eight legitimate "Brady vs. Ben" bouts. The Patriots are 6-2 in those games and covered the spread five times to post a 5-3 ATS mark. What is worth mentioning is the fact that Roethlisberger has never beaten a Brady-led Patriots squad in Foxboro. The "TB12"-led Pats are 3-0 all-time at home versus "Big Ben" and the Steelers, posting a 2-1 ATS record in the process.