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College basketball's best teams are also its best bets ... besides Kansas

Reese Strickland / USA TODAY Sports

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College basketball bettors have got what they’ve expected from the Top 10 teams in the nation this season. That is, from every one of those elite programs besides Kansas.

The Jayhawks are the only team ranked inside the AP Top 10 that isn’t covering the spread at least 58 percent of the time. Kansas is 17-1 SU and sits No. 2 in the AP poll – and is actually No. 1 in the USA Today Coaches poll. However, Bill Self’s kids have managed to cover the spread in only six of their 16 lined games, lugging a costly 6-10 ATS record.

Kansas has little trouble scoring, averaging 85.8 points per game which sits 14th most in the country. The Jayhawks are shooting 50.4 percent from the field and 41.2 percent from beyond the 3-point arc – both of which rank 8th. On the defensive end, however, KU is 141st in points allowed, giving up an average of 70.4 points to opponents. That’s an average margin of victory of +15.3 versus an average closing spread of -13.72.

The Jayhawks have been favorites of -15.5 or more in seven of their games this season. There has been a drop off in second-half production, with the margin dipping from +8.8 in the first half to +6.7 points in the final 20 minutes. Looking at KU's recent bet graphs (exclusive to Covers.com) for games in which it failed to cover the spread, and rarely did Kansas actually play well enough to cover the lofty lines at any point during those 40 minutes.

Kansas is undefeated in its first six Big 12 conference games, but is only 2-4 ATS in those contests after going 67-57-4 ATS inside the Big 12 in the last eight years. And, KU is 2-5 ATS inside Allen Fieldhouse - one of the best home-court advantages in sports - after posting a 54-42-2 ATS record at home since 2010.

Overall, the AP poll’s Top 10 teams in the country have a combined mark of 102-59-1 ATS as of Wednesday (169-14 SU), covering the spread 63 percent of the time. Taking KU out of that equation improves that collective record to 96-49-1 ATS – a 66 percent winner if you blindly bet on those Top 10 teams so far this season.

The best bet among the Top 10 are the No. 4 Gonzaga Bulldogs, who boast a 12-2 ATS record and are unbeaten at 17-0 SU. Behind the Zags in terms of ATS success among those Top-10 programs are No. 7 Creighton (13-4 ATS), No. 10 Florida State (11-5 ATS) and defending champ No. 1 Villanova (12-6 ATS).

Here’s a full list of the Top 10 AP poll programs and their SU/ATS records:

Villanova 18-1 SU, 12-6 ATS

Kansas 17-1 SU, 6-10 ATS

UCLA 18-1 SU, 11-8 ATS

Gonzaga 17-0, 12-2 ATS

Kentucky 16-2 SU, 11-7 ATS

Baylor 17-1 SU, 8-5 ATS

Creighton 18-1 SU, 13-4 ATS

West Virginia 15-2 SU, 7-5 ATS

North Carolina 17-3 SU, 11-7-1 ATS

Florida State 16-2 SU, 11-5 ATS

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