Rosenfels: Ranking the 12 playoff quarterbacks

Sage Rosenfels is a former 12-year NFL quarterback who writes, does radio, and podcasts about the NFL and college football.

Now that the regular season has ended and the playoffs are a few days away, I’ve decided to break down each of the 12 starting quarterbacks.

We’ve got a mix of players with a wide variety of playoff experience. This year’s group has four players who have been Super Bowl MVPs, as well as three backups.

In this piece, I describe each quarterback individually, in order of the players with little to no hope of winning a playoff game, to whom I would most want as my starter.

Be forewarned, I believe postseason experience has incredible value this time of year.

12. Connor Cook/Matt McGloin

The best thing I can say about Cook is that he won a Big 10 Championship last year. Luckily, he did get some playing time in Week 17 and didn’t embarrass himself against a good Broncos defense. He could be the first quarterback with no regular season starts in his career to win a playoff game. The Raiders are a better all around team than the Texans, so if Cook doesn’t screw it up, he could get himself a nice playoff win.

11. Tom Savage

He hasn’t looked terrible during his short time as the Texans’ starter. His zero turnovers is a plus, but his zero touchdown passes isn’t helping much. After receiving a first half concussion this week, nobody knows who is starting for the Texans. They got lucky, as they have the Derek Carr-less Raiders at home. If Osweiler starts, I’m not sure if there would be a difference. Defense, special teams, and coaching will be the Texans’ reason for getting through the first round.

10. Matt Moore

I was a teammate with Matt for two weeks back in 2011. Though he has been a backup for most of his career, he has plenty of starts with some quality wins. Moore is one of those backups who is talented enough, but too inconsistent to be a starter. He may have a three touchdown game one week and a four interception game the next. This is what’s intriguing about him. Of the three backups starting in the playoffs, he is the most likely to shock the league by beating the Steelers.

9. Alex Smith

Though he doesn’t have a strong arm, Smith knows how to win close ball games. Very few players in the NFL know how to win ugly games, but Smith excels in them. He understands what type of team he has and uses the many weapons at his disposal. Smith also has the mobility to get key first downs, which can be the difference in close playoff games. He also has a fair amount of playoff experience. The concern is if he has to carry his team if/when they are behind by a couple scores in the second half. There is a good chance he will play home against the Steelers in the second round, and if they win, at New England. Whoever goes to New England in the AFC title game will have to play out of their mind. I love this Kansas City team. I’m just not sure if Smith can beat Brady head to head.

8. Matthew Stafford

I can’t believe I have Stafford this far down on my list!!! What am I thinking? For one, the Lions have sputtered like an ’88 Ford Tempo down the stretch. They should have won the NFC North by two games, but now have to travel to Seattle in the first round. Stafford does give his team a chance to beat anybody, but he also has very little playoff experience. Playing outdoors, on the road, won’t help his cause either. Until he gets to an NFC Championship game, Stafford will be one of those quarterbacks who puts up huge regular season numbers and that’s about it. The Lions are fun to watch and never seem out of it with Stafford’s ability to bring his team back. The problem with this reality is they are regularly behind in the fourth quarter. Playoff comebacks are much tougher than those in the regular season.

7. Dak Prescott

Yes, the Cowboys are the best team in the NFC. No, Dak isn’t the quarterback I’d prefer as my playoff starter. Since Week 1, Prescott has impressed me more and more as the season progressed. Despite two poor games in December, away games versus the Giants and Vikings, Prescott has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks of the 2016 season. He has the best Oline in football and has home field advantage. My concerns are his obvious lack of experience. Playoff football is a whole new world in the NFL. I doubt he will be able to simply hand it off to Ezekiel Elliott and win the Super Bowl. At some point, he will need to take over a game through the air. He has the ability to do it, but his unknowns are what concern me.

6. Russell Wilson

Last year, Wilson was one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL the second half of the season. This year, his overall play hasn’t lived up to his usual standards. He has won a Super Bowl (should have won two) and has a lot of playoff experience for a player in only his fifth season. This Seattle team doesn’t have the run game or defense from years past, but Wilson, who opens the playoffs at home, can take a game over all by himself. He is one of the most accurate short, mid-range, and deep throwers in the league. He also is one of the most dangerous when asked to make off-schedule plays. In the playoffs, a quarterback scramble at a key time can be the difference between advancing to the next round and cleaning out your locker. Not many do it better than Wilson. He starts the playoffs with a home game, and rarely does a team go into Seattle and win. Also, nobody would be THAT surprised if he led the Seahawks to wins at Atlanta or Dallas.

5. Matt Ryan

I’ll be gushing about the players above Ryan because of their playoff successes. Ryan is high on the list because of his unbelievable MVP-caliber season. Paired with offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, Ryan’s attack can beat you on the ground or through the air. They may have the best offense in the playoffs and won’t have to go outdoors either. The Falcons don’t have a team as good as the Cowboys, but their offense could easily put up 30 points in the Jerry Dome. He does have playoff experience, more than Dak Prescott, but the issue with Ryan’s experience is most of it isn’t positive. His postseason quarterback rating is only slightly above my career rating, a pedestrian 85.2.

4. Eli Manning

Call me biased for having him this high on my list, as I was Manning’s backup in 2010, but Eli has a history of getting hot in the playoffs. Like Big Ben, Eli can beat anyone at any location. He is the only quarterback to beat Tom Brady in the Super Bowl and he did it twice. During the playoffs, there is nothing like experience and Eli has plenty of it. He also has three solid weapons at wide receiver and a feisty defense. Manning may throw three interceptions in his first game and end the Giants season by himself. Or, he may play out of his mind and run into Tom for the third time in the Super Bowl. He’s like the streaky shooter that can put up 50 on any given night, or he could be John Starks. Either way, he will keep firing.

3. Ben Roethlisberger

If someone is going to beat the Patriots in the AFC, I can’t imagine it being anyone but Big Ben. He has two Super Bowl wins under his belt, and is talented enough to pull ugly playoff wins out of a hat. It also helps that he has the best running back/wide receiver combo in the league with Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. One of the reasons Ben is so high on the list is his ability to play in terrible weather. There is a good chance that, if the Steelers make it to the Super Bowl, all three of their playoff games could be in nasty conditions. I love Ben’s ability to get hot during the playoffs, his experience, the talent around him, and his courage to go anywhere and win.

2. Aaron Rodgers

I wrote an article earlier this season titled “What's Wrong With Aaron Rodgers?” Two months into the season, it looked as though the Packers wouldn’t make the playoffs, as the Lions and Vikings seemed to be controlling the NFC North race. The Packers were struggling to run the football and didn’t have enough threats at wide receiver and tight end for Rodgers to maximize his talents. No team has made a more drastic turnaround than the Packers, and much of this has to do with new players finding their groove in November and December. Ty Montgomery has changed the dynamic of their running back room by being an elusive ball carrier, as well as being a receiving threat out of the backfield. Also, Jordy Nelson has been a touchdown machine during the second half of the season. His repaired knee is looking stronger each week. Jared Cook has finally proven that his offseason signing wasn’t a mistake, and has become Rodgers’ best tight end since Jermichael Finley. Aaron has won a Super Bowl and is one of the few quarterbacks on the list who can go head to head with Tom Brady, the likely AFC winner.

1. Tom Brady

Without a doubt, Brady is the player I would want as my quarterback more than any other in the NFL. Yes, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan have had terrific seasons, but Brady has more experience in the clutch than anyone on the list. After missing the first four games of the season to suspension, he has been nearly perfect for the last 12 games. His 28 touchdowns and two interceptions is simply incredible. With the AFC having three backup quarterbacks starting, this may be the easiest year yet for Tom to make it to the Super Bowl.