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A guide to MLB's tie-break scenarios this weekend

Jeff Curry / USA TODAY Sports

The division winners have been settled but there's still an opportunity for plenty of chaos regarding the wild-card picture heading into the the regular season's final weekend.

Four American League teams are separated by two games in the wild-card race, while the National League features three teams within two. The AL's No. 1 seed - and home-field advantage through the World Series - is also still at stake.

Here are the potential tie-breaking scenarios should they be necessary after the final games are played Sunday. NOTE: All records accurate as of Thursday's games.

Two-team tie for both wild-card spots

If only two teams qualify for the wild card, but have equal records, home-field advantage would be based on the teams' head-to-head record. Should that record be the same, the second tiebreaker is the teams' intradivision record, followed by intraleague record.

American League breakdown

  • Toronto won the season series over Baltimore 10-8, and therefore would host the Orioles in the wild-card game.
  • Toronto won the season series over Detroit 4-3, and therefore would host the Tigers in the wild-card game.
  • The Blue Jays and Mariners tied their season series. As of Thursday the Blue Jays hold a better intradivision record than the Mariners, but that could change as both teams finish against divisional opponents.

National League breakdown

  • St. Louis won its season series against the Giants and owns both tiebreakers - intradivisional and intraleague records - over the Mets. The Cardinals would host the wild-card game against either team.
  • The Mets won their season series over San Francisco 4-3, and therefore would host the Giants in the wild-card game.
  • There is no scenario where the Giants would play at home if two teams tie for the NL wild card.

Two teams tie for 2nd wild-card spot

If two teams tie for the second wild-card spot, a Game 163 tie-breaker will be played, with the winner traveling to the first wild-card the next day.

American League breakdown

  • The Blue Jays hold tiebreakers over the Orioles, Tigers, and Mariners (pending the weekend results) in this scenario. If the Blue Jays are tied with any of these teams, a Game 163 would be held at Rogers Centre.
  • Baltimore would host an Orioles-Tigers Game 163 thanks to a 5-2 season series win over Detroit.
  • Seattle went 6-1 against Baltimore and would host a Game 163 at Safeco Field, creating a potential travel nightmare - New York to Seattle to Toronto or Detroit to Cleveland, Boston, or Arlington in 96 hours - for Baltimore.
  • Detroit holds the tiebreaker over Seattle and would host a Mariners-Tigers Game 163, which would likely be played after the Tigers-Indians makeup game Monday at Comerica Park.

National League breakdown

  • Scenarios from a two-team tie for one NL wild-card spot don't change here. The Giants would be on the road for Game 163 and a wild-card game; the Cardinals would host the Mets in Game 163.

Three-team tie for two wild-card spots

Ready for mathematics and confusion? We certainly hope so. If three teams tie for two wild-card spots, the teams will be seeded based on head-to-head records. Team A would host Team B in Game 163 with the winner getting one wild-card spot and the loser traveling to Team C; the winner of that game becomes the second wild card.

Designations are primarily determined by head-to-head records and the other tiebreakers; you can find the full explanation from MLB's official tiebreaker rules guide here. All the tiebreakers outlined above apply here.

American League breakdown

  • The Blue Jays, thanks to tiebreakers, would likely have first pick. If they choose to be team A they'd get two chances at earning the first wild-card berth on the road at either Baltimore, Detroit, or - unlikely - Seattle; if they win one game on the road they'll become the first wild-card team and host the AL wild-card game. If they choose to be team C they'd play the loser of A/B at Rogers Centre, with the winner earning the second wild-card berth.

National League breakdown

  • The Cardinals and Mets both hold tiebreakers over the Giants, and therefore would get to choose their designations. The Cardinals hold the tie-breaker over the Mets and get first pick.
  • If the Cardinals choose team A, they would host the Mets in Game 163. The winner becomes wild card No. 1; the loser flies to San Francisco for Game 164. The winner of Game 164 then plays the winner of Game 163 in the wild-card game; see above scenarios for who hosts.
  • The Mets could opt to be team C, meaning they would play one home game - Game 164, against the loser of Giants-Cardinals in Game 163 - instead of two road games. In this scenario, the Mets would be the road team in the actual wild-card game should they get there.

Four-team tie for 2 wild-card spots

This is applicable in the AL only, and it's a long shot. According to Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated, a four-team tie at 88 wins requires Baltimore and Toronto to both go 1-2, Detroit to go 3-1, and Seattle - who beat Oakland Thursday night - to go 3-0 over the weekend. For an 87-win tie, the Orioles and Blue Jays would have to be swept, Detroit would go 2-2, and the Mariners, thanks to Thursday's win, 2-1.

Using each tie-breaker scenario outlined above, the four teams would be given A-B-C-D designations to play a pair of semifinal games. The team with the highest winning percentage against the other three clubs chooses first, followed by the second-, third-, and fourth-highest; in the event those winning percentages are tied your head will likely explode from confusion. A detailed explanation can be found here.

Once seeding is determined, it's easy: The winners of the two semifinal games play the actual AL wild-card game (location based on tiebreakers), and the losers go home.

Home-field advantage through AL playoffs

Surprisingly, the Junior Circuit's No. 1 seed is still very much in play for the three division winners. If the Indians still have a chance to grab either the No. 1 seed or home-field advantage in the ALDS after Sunday, they will make up Thursday's rainout against the Tigers in Detroit whether the Tigers have been eliminated or not.

  • Cleveland lost the season series to both the Rangers and Red Sox, and therefore would lose the No. 1 seed if they finish tied with either team.
  • The Rangers and Red Sox split their season series. Texas owns a better record in the AL West than Boston does in the AL East; therefore, a tie between these clubs gives the Rangers the No. 1 seed.
  • If the Rangers, Red Sox, and Indians finish tied, Texas gets the No. 1 seed with the best combined record against the other two clubs. Boston would then get No. 2 thanks to owning the tie-break over Cleveland.

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