Fantasy Lookahead: Paul Casey looking to end slump at two missed cuts
Casey has missed the cut in consecutive events for the first time since January 2015. He failed to reach the weekend at both the Memorial Tournament and the U.S. Open. His most recent placing was a 23rd at The Players Championship, but his most recent top-10 finish is still his fourth-place result at the Masters.
He has participated in just 14 events this season, making 10 cuts and placing inside the top 10 on three occasions. It has been an inconsistent season, but he's bottoming out with his worst play in a 18 months.
Course History
Casey has played at Firestone Country Club 10 times since 2005, back when the tournament was sponsored by NEC. He didn't participate in 2014 and withdrew in 2009, after just six holes. He has two top 10s in this event, a fourth in 2006 and an eighth in 2008. He came 17th in 2015, the third-best finish of his career at Firestone CC.
Statistical Breakdown
Per FantasyInsiders, the following stats have been strengths of previous winners at Firestone Country Club:
Driving Distance (DD)
Par 4 Efficiency 450-500 Yards (P4E)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SGA)
Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB)
Here's how Casey has fared in the selected statistics thus far this year:
| DD | P4E | SGA | BoB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 155 | 37 | 64 |
Casey has cumulatively shot over par on the Par 4s in each of his past six tournaments, dating back to the WGC: Dell Match Play. His other principle stats have been wildly inconsistent, with his average driving distance fluctuating by as many as 19 yards, while his driving accuracy has dipped as low as 48.21 percent and peaked as high as 82.14 percent.
He has lost as many as .983 strokes putting, but he gained .113 strokes at the Memorial. His final-round scoring average ranks sixth on tour, but he's played just nine Sunday rounds this season. He doesn't have a statistical edge over this extremely strong field.
Daily Fantasy
His poor recent form and the star quality of this field keep Casey priced within the middle tier this week, but even so he can't be trusted in anything other than large tournaments. The overall quality of his career will always keep him near the fantasy radar, but owners shouldn't allow themselves to be sucked in by a seemingly discounted salary. It's that low for a very good reason.
Season-Long Fantasy
Casey ranks in the middle of a shallow, but strong C-List. Names above and below him like Shane Lowry and Soren Kjeldsen have much better course histories as well as recent forms. Owners should have plenty of remaining starts for the majority of players in this tier, and there's no reason to force a start out of Casey until he shows more reliable form.