Why the 49ers should start Gabbert over Kaepernick
It's amazing how far the San Francisco 49ers have fallen since coming a tipped pass away from a second consecutive Super Bowl appearance just two seasons ago.
Players are counting down the days until their contracts expire, free agents don't even consider the team an option, and the coaching staff has been replaced - twice.
Following a disastrous 5-11 season under head coach impersonator Jim Tomsula, the 49ers dumped their former defensive line coach and hired Chip Kelly to be their leader.
Kelly's first task: choose a starting quarterback.
Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert each started eight games for the 49ers in 2015, with Gabbert posting one more win. Kaepernick has been on the shelf in the offseason, rehabbing from three surgeries.
| Quarterback | Record | Comp. | Att. | Yards | TD | Int | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaepernick | 2-6 | 144 | 244 | 1615 | 6 | 5 | 78.5 |
| Gabbert | 3-5 | 178 | 282 | 2031 | 10 | 7 | 86.2 |
While the Niners are paying Kaepernick like a starting quarterback, with their roster lacking talent and depth, they may be better off giving the keys to Gabbert in their first season under Kelly, here's why:
System fit
It's a common misconception that the key to Kelly's offense is a quarterback who can run; it's actually about quick decision-making. Don't forget Kelly's most successful time with the Philadelphia Eagles came with cement-footed Nick Foles under center.
Kaepernick is among the NFL's worst at making quick decisions. He often relies on his athleticism to keep plays alive in hopes of making a big play with his strong arm. This is most often seen later in games when his team is trailing, a position the 49ers are guaranteed to be in several times next season.
Gabbert has "impressed" Kelly with his work in the offense so far in the offseason. Every day he practices, while Kaepernick rehabs, Gabbert is becoming more and more familiar with the one-of-a-kind system and his "game manager" style is ideal for getting the ball to playmakers in space, another key to Kelly's scheme.
Kelly's offense does benefit from a quarterback who can move, but don't sit on Gabbert's athleticism or he'll make you pay.
Respect in the locker room
There have been rumors swirling around Kaepernick's locker room presence since their 1-2 start in 2013. Niners legend Joe Montana recently confirmed that the quarterback has never been known to communicate with teammates.
On the other hand, Gabbert's teammates have heaped praise throughout the offseason. Tight end Garrett Celek said the Missouri product is "definitely taking control" in workouts. Peyton Manning's former teammate Zane Beadles praised Gabbert's locker room presence and professionalism.
In the season's final eight weeks, the 49ers rallied behind Gabbert to squeeze out two overtime wins and a one-point victory over the Atlanta Falcons after failing to post a double-digit score five times under Kaepernick.
Salvaging the season
Regardless of who plays quarterback for the 49ers, it's not going to be a pretty season. San Francisco made zero significant additions through free agency, putting most hopes for an improved season on whatever Kelly can bring to the table.
Kaepernick's history of going rogue with playcalling late in games won't do anything to help the team's progression under Kelly. Since signing his reported seven-year, $126.97-million contract in 2014, Kaepernick has felt the pressure to win games all on his own; Kelly's system is designed for the opposite.
Kelly and the 49ers need to accept that they just plain won't have a chance to win certain matchups next season, but they still need to make the most of each game while they rebuild. Even if he isn't their quarterback of the future, Gabbert will do his best to run the system the way Kelly has instructed.
Considering the reputation the 49ers' front office and ownership has for being over-involved on the field, benching Kaepernick and his high salary may be too hard to ignore. The situation looks very similar to Robert Griffin III's saga with the Washington Redskins and the Niners have made it clear they're not ready to let their quarterback walk away without compensation.
If the team can resist the media storm of benching a name like Kaepernick, their best option for long-term success is to give Gabbert a chance to be their man.