Analysis: Is there any way Lamar Jackson doesn't win the Heisman?

Despite two November losses to unranked opponents, Lamar Jackson remains the prohibitive Heisman favorite with a week remaining in the race. Expert panels from ESPN and CBS Sports both have Jackson favored considerably, and his odds out in the desert have only dropped from 1:30 to 1:25 in recent weeks. Which begs the question: Has the final margin only tightened or are we in store for a Heisman upset next week at the Playstation Theater in Times Square?

To answer that hypothetical, it helps to identify at least two candidates who have credentials worthy of the most sought after individual prize in sports. Despite a late push from USC’s Adoree Jackson, it appears that only two quarterbacks have a legitimate shot at leapfrogging Jackson. Thanks to an extra game each, Washington’s Jake Browning and Clemson’s Deshaun Watson are positioned to impress the Heisman voters one last time. Browning (85.6) and Watson (80.4) both rank in the top-10 of ESPN’s Total QBR metric, and have accounted for 44 and 38 touchdowns respectively. To give their Total QBR scores some perspective, here’s a list of recent quarterbacks who all scored in the mid-80s during their Heisman Trophy seasons.

A dominant conference championship performance is necessary for both Watson and Browning to legitimize their Heisman hopes, but their performances can’t simply begin and end with gaudy statistics. For either QB to derail Jackson’s wire-to-wire Heisman candidacy, they’ll need a distinctive Heisman moment. As it stands today, Jackson’s hurdle of Syracuse’s Cordell Hudson way back on Sept. 9 remains the Heisman moment of the 2016 season. That play, however, lacks the kind of CFP significance that is available to both Watson and Browning this weekend. Posterizing a defender on a 4-8 team in the second week of the season, as physically impressive as it was, falls short of the mark when weighed against other truly meaningful Heisman moments. Desmond Howard’s punt return against Ohio State was downright magical, but it also assured the Wolverines a trip to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl. Johnny Manziel’s wizardry against Alabama allowed Texas A&M to capture the program’s second victory over a team ranked No. 1 in the nation. It’s moments like that that stand the test of time, and Jackson has left the door open for Browning and Watson to capture a signature moment during a game wrought with CFP implications.

The last piece of hope for Jackson’s challengers is the voting process. Browning is at a decided geographic advantage. Should Browning have a massive performance on Friday night against Colorado, and Oklahoma State upset Oklahoma in the Bedlam game, it could be argued that the UW QB is the best candidate west of the Mississippi. Winning the Far West region is a necessity for Browning, but a dominant performance on the national stage could put him in line to capture significant votes in both the Southwest and Midwest regions as well. In a strange way, it could also help Browning if Watson were to have a stellar ACC Championship Game, to cut into Jackson’s presumed lead in the eastern regions. Some voters might feel compelled to go with Watson, who beat Jackson head-to-head should he finish strongly with a big night against Virginia Tech.

There’s a reason that Browning and Watson are currently listed as 12:1 and 14:1 long shots respectively, but Heisman history has shown late charges are possible. Robert Griffin III's late push past Andrew Luck, Mark Ingram’s SEC title game springboard over Toby Gerhart, and Charles Woodson’s narrow victory over Peyton Manning all prove that playing your best at season’s end can sway Heisman voters at the 11th hour. So I wouldn’t cash those Lamar Jackson tickets just yet.