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Lou Williams and the difference between a makeable shot and a good shot

Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Hero ball giveth, but more often than not hero ball taketh away.

Toronto Raptors guard Lou Williams confirmed the latter with one of the worst clutch-time possessions of the season during Tuesday's game between the Raptors and Detroit Pistons.

Williams and the Raptors bailed the Pistons out by using nearly all of the remaining time on the clock despite being down two with 18 seconds left, leaving them less than two seconds after handing possession back to the Pistons following a brick.

Making matters worse, the Raptors didn't milk the clock while running an array of cuts, screens and ball movement to generate the perfect shot. Williams used the time to set up a pull-up three, in isolation, with his foot on the giant Pistons logo at center court.

There's plenty of blame to go around when teams crumble in such spectacular fashion with the game on the line, but the real issue was Williams's lack of awareness regarding his poor decision.

"It's a shot that I'm comfortable with," Williams said after the game. "If you look at every game, when you give me the ball at the end of quarters, I shoot the same exact shot," he added.

The question here isn't who's to blame for the Raptors' late-game failure. It's a question of simple basketball intelligence, and the refusal of many players and coaches to accept the fact that generating a good, open shot for an average player is better than giving the ball to a team's designated go-to player for a shot that will likely be contested.

As Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr said earlier this season while asserting that teams predictably go to superstars in late-game situations because people are idiots, "The point of the game is to get an open shot."

It's no secret that an open shot yields more favorable results than a contested attempt, and it's also common knowledge that if players can't generate something going to the basket, producing a catch-and-shoot opportunity is better than a pull-up attempt.

Take a look at the Effective Field Goal Percentages on pull-ups versus catch-and-shoot attempts for the Raptors and the league's top four shooting teams. Remember, a catch-and-shoot is the result of at least one pass and generally includes more 3-pointers.

Team Pull Up EFG% Catch&Shoot EFG%
Raptors 40.1 54.6
Warriors 48.4 55.5
Clippers 46.2 53.6
Hawks 40.8 56.9
Cavaliers 43.8 54.3

Using the Raptors as an example, per possession efficiency indicates that even a simple pick-and-roll with Williams and one of the team's two big men on the floor at the time would have been more beneficial than a predictable, easy-to-guard Williams iso.

Player/Situation PPP
Lou Williams Iso 1.00
Williams P&R ball handler 1.01
Patrick Patterson P&R roll man 1.24
Amir Johnson P&R roll man 1.18

As Williams reminded us, too many unimaginative late-game creations from coaches and poor decisions from players are excused with, "That's a shot he can make."

No one is questioning whether Williams and others can make such shots, which are sometimes necessary in desperate, scrambling situations.

But the question for coaches, players and teams as a whole when using a precious possession - particularly in the clutch - shouldn't simply be "Can I make this shot?" but rather "Is this the best shot my team can generate on this possession?"

If the answer is no, the player, coach and team in question have failed.

If the answer is "not even close" - as it was for Williams and the Raptors on Tuesday in Detroit - they've failed miserably.

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