Elfrid Payton, Marcus Smart and point guard shooting development
It's rare to see a team use a lottery pick on a point guard who can't shoot. Rare, but justifiable. To see three teams doing so is cause for curiosity.
None of the three point guards selected in the top 10 of last year's draft entered the league with a stable jump shot. A quick look back at theScore's pre-draft scouting reports confirms this isn't hindsight:
Dante Exum, No. 5 overall, Utah Jazz
Weaknesses: Exum isn't yet a great shooter from the perimeter, which itself isn't a concern yet but could make him a poor backcourt fit with certain teams in the short term.
Marcus Smart, No. 6 overall, Boston Celtics
Weaknesses: Smart's shooting remains an appreciable hole in his game. He's not afraid to take threes but his percentages on triples and jump shots inside the arc were troublesome.
Elfrid Payton, No. 10 overall, Orlando Magic (via Philadelphia 76ers)
Weaknesses: He can't shoot. Like, at all. He shot 26 percent on threes and only 24 percent on 2-point jump shots.
Point guards can succeed without a strong jumper – Rajon Rondo comes to mind – and teams can get by with a lead guard who can't stroke it. But it puts a heavier burden on the rest of the offense, requires some creativity from a head coach and narrows the team's options in terms of a backcourt partner.
This draft class didn't exactly have sharpshooting points, but multiple teams spending valuable picks on ostensibly flawed players was worth a closer look. Was shooting being underpriced or was there a tangible reason that teams didn't mind a point guard who shoots like I do?
As it turns out, point guards tend to improve their field-goal percentage with experience. More than athleticism, vision or any number of other skills, and perhaps defense, shooting and finishing appear to be skills that can be learned.
To illustrate, data was pulled going back to 1996-97, when the 3-point line was first moved back. Looking at guards who took at least 350 field-goal attempts as rookies and 350 as sophomores – and later, 1,000 attempts over the remainder of their careers – there was a clear upward trend in field-goal percentage, 2-point field-goal percentage and effective field-goal percentage, which accounts for the added value of a 3-point shot.
Some survivor bias is present, as point guards who continue to shoot horribly may be given fewer and fewer opportunities, especially after their second season.
Those who did survive – they met the attempt requirements mentioned – generally showed improvement from year one onward. Nearly two-thirds of all guards in the sample improved their percentages from their rookie seasons over the rest of their careers.
Like the 76ers, who value other, less teachable skills over shooting, the Jazz, Magic and Celtics appear to believe they can help their respective point guards develop into shooters.
This made sense for each prospect. Exum was young, inexperienced, long and toolsy, with the type of frame and raw ability that wasn't available in another prospect. Smart was already an NBA-ready defender who was expected to attack the rim and finish strong. Payton was likewise a strong defender and had displayed all of the other skills a team could want from a franchise point guard.
The early returns are promising, in particular for the Celtics and Magic (Exum, at 19, remains more of a long-term project).
Smart has jumped off the screen on the defensive end and probably slots right behind Payton on a rookie rankings list. A hot early start from long range has cooled and he's shooting 37.3 percent from the floor and 33.7 percent from outside, but even a somewhat brief flash of an effective shot was encouraging.
A refined shot selection could help those numbers and his game has been encouraging otherwise. He's averaging 7.4 points, three rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.2 steals, and the Celtics have been 7.6 points per-100 possessions better when he's on the court.
Payton, meanwhile, has been perhaps the league's second most impressive rookie behind Andrew Wiggins, playing an encouraging two-way game from the start despite a large jump in quality of competition from the Sun Belt Conference.
He's averaging eight points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 1.5 steals, makes the Magic 5.9 points per-100 possessions better when he takes the floor and, while his free-throw shooting remains an issue at 53.4 percent, his overall shooting has improved. He's jumped from a 39 percent mark from the floor in his first 39 games to a 48.3 percent clip in his last 19.
That improvement has more to do with his ability to drive and his improving finishing ability, while Smart's is due more to what appears to be an improved jumper.
With Payton playing alongside Victor Oladipo, a strong example of how guard shooting can improve quickly, the Magic appear to have a functional backcourt of the future.
None of this is to say negatives on a scouting report shouldn't be taken seriously, but in the case of very talented guards lacking a jump shot, patience and optimism are warranted.