Rajon Rondo bolsters an already dangerous Mavericks squad
Years of speculation are over.
Rajon Rondo's trade to the Dallas Mavericks lifts a cloud of uncertainty that had hovered over the point guard since the Boston Celtics blew up their 2008 championship core two offseasons ago.
Rondo - the last remaining Celtic from that 2007-08 title team - has long been rumored to be on the block, and if a torn ACL hadn't effectively torpedoed his trade value last season he might've been dealt a long time ago.
The Celtics rode out it out, presumably in the hope that he would return to pre-injury form and rebuild his trade value. He did, to a point.
But we may not be able to judge the deal from the Celtics' end until they make whatever moves they plan to make down the road.
The Mavericks, meanwhile, receive an immediate improvement at what's been their weakest position this year.
With Jameer Nelson, Devin Harris, Raymond Felton (still yet to play this season), and J.J. Barea on the roster, the Mavs weren't starved for point guards, just quality ones. Rondo hasn't looked like the All-NBA stud he was before the ACL surgery, but he still represents a substantial upgrade over that quartet.
The knocks on Rondo are mostly shooting related, which is not insignificant. The Mavericks may profile as a dead-eyed shooting team, but they rank just 15th in 3-point percentage, and the outgoing Nelson was their third-most effective shooter from distance at 36.9 percent.
Their offense to this point has relied on spacing and quick passing, facilitated by two of the most devastating pick-and-roll finishers in the league - Brandan Wright and Tyson Chandler. Wright, who leads the NBA in true shooting, is fifth in PER, and is part of the Mavericks' top three five-man units (minimum 25 minutes played together), is now a Celtic. Making up for his absence may not be easy.
ESPN Stats & Info points out that Mavericks point guards have no 10-assist games this season, while Rondo has 13 such games. That isn't an accident. Dallas runs an intuitive system, which can adapt its multi-faceted lineup to what opposing defenses give them. Their point guards don't always dictate the flow of the offense; just as often, they run plays through Monta Ellis, Chandler Parsons, or even Dirk Nowitzki from the elbows.
It's not like the Mavs don't know how to share the ball. They have the seventh-best assist rate in the league. In most instances, their point guard's ability to knock down shots has been equally important as his ability to distribute.
But Rondo isn't just any point guard; he's a good enough distributor to break that paradigm. It'll mean moving Ellis off the ball more, and playing those two together will likely make the Mavs' pick-and-roll less lethal. But Rondo has always shown the ability to get the right guys the ball in the right spots, and if any coach can figure out how to best utilize him it's probably Rick Carlisle.
Worrying about how Rondo might fit into the offense could prove irrelevant, anyway. The Mavericks are on pace to post the best adjusted offensive rating in history. But that won't matter a lick if they can't pick things up at the defensive end, where they rank 20th overall, and dead last in both 3-pointers allowed and opponents' 3-point percentage.
Rondo's pedigree probably outweighs his real defensive value at this point, but he immediately becomes the Mavs' best backcourt defender, and his ability to keep guys in front of him and contain penetration should limit the number of open looks Dallas surrenders from outside. His activity in the passing lanes should further goose a unit that already forces turnovers at a very high rate.
In short, if Rondo can help improve the defense, even to the point that it becomes league-average, the addition should be a net positive.