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Where do the Pacers go from here?

Steve Mitchell / USA TODAY Sports

When does a team win a conference-best 55 games, take the two-time defending champs to six games in the Conference Finals and still fee like one of the weirdest, most frustrating disappointments of the NBA's 21st century? When that team is the 2013-'14 Indiana Pacers, a team so perplexing and fundamentally upsetting amidst their sporadic brilliance that they had to invent a new word to describe their uniquely unwatchable season.

You know the story already. Team returns from best season in a decade. Team starts off brilliantly. Team faces on-court and off-court adversity. Team starts to lose momentum. Team makes a variety of mid-season moves to reverse momentum. Team's moves backfire and leave team even worse off than before. Team reaches near-free-fall and narrowly avoids splattering on the ground in first two playoff series. And finally, team gets put out of their misery by their arch-rivals, just as they were the last two seasons. 

For all they've accomplished in their ascent to this point over the last four seasons, the Pacers are now in as tricky a spot as any team in the East, since their team was assembled this season with making The Finals as their baseline goal, with no long-term contingency strategy if Plan A failed. Now that Plan A has failed--perhaps not spectacularly, but rather unmistakably--the team is in an unenviable spot for a supposed contender, with both short-term and long-term questions of great importance hanging over them. There will be no easy answers. 

But first, let's give a slightly more balanced, less recency-biased look at the season that was for the Indiana Pacers. 

The Good

The Pacers' season started out on a 33-7 tear, primarily for the reasons that everyone would have hoped for going into the season: Paul George, Roy Hibbert and Lance Stephenson all took a step up in their respective games, while David West and George Hill provided lineup stability and coach Frank Vogel again presided over the league's top-rated defense. George looked like an MVP candidate, Hibbert a sure thing for Defensive Player of the Year, and Stephenson a breakout star with a very good case to make his first-ever All-Star Game. 

In a weak Eastern Conference, the Pacers were able to steamroll lesser competition for most of the season, and to play the top teams strong enough to amass one of the league's highest overall win totals. They stated over and over again that their priority in the regular season was to secure home-court advantage for the East playoffs, primarily for their seemingly inevitable Conference Finals matchup against Miami, and they succeeded in that aim, even though it ultimately ended up not mattering. 

George and Stephenson are both just 23 and still improving, and the team's defense alone should be solid enough to sustain them--especially in the unlikely-to-imrpove East--at the top of the conference pile for years still to come, with one of the league's best young coaches and most respected front offices still in place to steward them through whatever turbulence should arise. If they made it to the conference finals for a third straight year next season, it would not be particularly surprising.  

The Bad

The end of the team's season was so bad, however, and so discouraging for the future, that it's hard to get through all that Good without constantly contradicting myself with "Yeah, but..."s. As great as the year started for George, Hibbert and Stephenson, all three regressed badly by the end of the regular season, with George falling far enough out of the MVP discussion that he even missed All-NBA, Hibbert falling apart on the offensive end and ceding his seemingly good-as-won DPOY trophy to Joakim Noah, and Stephenson reverting to his more selfish on-court ways after (reportedly, anyway) taking his All-Star snub a little too personally. 

Further complicating matters, Stephenson becomes a free agent this summer, presenting the Pacers (and every other NBA team with cap space) with a largely unprecedented dilemma: How much is an unrestricted 23-year-old free agent with practically limitless on-court potential but an equal capacity for complete self-combustion worth on the open market? The Pacers might not be able to afford to keep Lance, since they're already pressed up against the salary cap and unlikely to want to go into the luxury tax, but they definitely can't afford to lose him, since he's their most (and at times only) reliable shot creator and has remaining upside of a level they're not gonna be able to otherwise import to their roster anytime soon. 

And outside of George and the veteran West, it's hard to say who else are the trustworthy players on this Pacers roster. Hibbert has proven to be too much of a head case to be relied upon for consistent production, particularly on the offensive end, where he posted four zero-point games this postseason. Hill was defensively stout as always in the regular season, but his offense lagged and his postseason performance was erratic on both sides of the ball. And there were no answers to be found on the bench, with backup point C.J. Watson and center Ian Mahinmi acquitting themselves decently if unspectacularly, but with big-budget import Luis Scola underwhelming, and other additions Evan Turner, Chris Copeland, Andrew Bynum and rookie Solomon Hill all proving unplayable - in Bynum's case almost literally so. 

Things got so bad with the Pacers' on-court product that the men behind the scenes most responsible for crafting it - Team President Larry Bird, GM Kevin Pritchard, ops consultant Donnie Walsh and even coach Frank Vogel - have to be feeling the heat (no pun intended) a little bit.

Bird and Walsh pulled the trigger on a number of moves that seem markedly short-sighted in retrospect, particularly the now-infamous Luis Scola trade, which stripped Indiana of two younger players (Gerald Green and Miles Plumlee) who went on to enjoy breakout seasons in Phoenix, as well as their first-round pick in this year's upcoming draft. And if Vogel didn't lose the locker room entirely, he at least raised questions about just how much the team still listens to him, given their tendency for on-court lethargy and their obviously dwindling team chemistry. 

The positions of all are likely secure for the time being - if they even feel like filling them next year after having to endure the last few months if this season - but they are now tasked with undoing a lot of the bad they did over the course of this season, without a ton of resources and with significantly less benefit of the doubt than a year ago. Here's how they might end up starting things off this summer, anyway: 

The Draft

As previously mentioned, there are no first-rounders for the Pacers this year, with Indy's top pick shipped to Phoenix in the Luis Scola trade. They do pick in the second round at No. 57, and they could use a hit there as much as any team - since nabbing Paul George and Lance Stephenson in 2010, one of the great draft-night hauls in recent NBA history, the Pacers have gotten no help from the draft, trading out for George Hill in 2011 (with the pick that became Kawhi Leonard), taking Plumlee in 2012 (played just 55 minutes total before being traded) and reaching for Solomon Hill in '13 (just 47 points this regular season). 

57 is far too low to be ensured of snaring a contributor, but there might be some players available to Indiana in that range who have the chance to be useful. Xavier's Semaj Christon and Arizona State's Jahii Carson are two combo-guard types whose college play proved highly unpolished, but who have athleticism and first-round upside arguably worth betting on for a team badly lacking punch off the bench. If available, sweet-shooting wing LaQuinton Ross might also be a consideration, as a Rasual Butler-type who doesn't turn 47-years-old next season.

Free Agency

Well, of course, first and foremost, the Pacers need to figure out what to do about Stephenson. Much as the Pacers might have tired of Lance's behavior on and off the court, the fact of the matter is that they have no way to replace the production they'd lose if he left - there was some thought that Evan Turner was traded to serve as such a back-up plan, but considering that Turner played a grand total of 3:34 in the entire Miami series, it wouldn't appear Indiana doesn't plan on the Villain (who's a restricted free agent himself this summer anyway) playing a large role in their long-term plans. 

The one positive for Indiana here is that Lance's antics this postseason - blowing in LeBron's ear, slapping Norris Cole, giving a series of locker-room quotes that redefined the term "bulletin-board material" - may have tanked his free agency value some.

Zach Lowe said on a recent Grantland podcast that he hasn't talked to a team that wouldn't be terrified to give Stephenson big money this summer, and given how the 23-year-old's "buffoonery" seems to have irritated his teammates and front-office almost as much as it has his opponents, that's not surprising. Whereas earlier in the season Lance might have cost as much as $12 million a year for four years to retain, he might now be gettable for more like eight mil and three years.

For those prices, you probably live with the headaches - though as everyone says, it only takes one team to overpay him, and as an unrestricted free agent, the Pacers won't have the right to match. 

If they do retain Lance, there's not going to be a lot of room for maneuvering elsewhere. The Pacers are already near the cap even without Lance (or Luis Scola, whose deal is only partially guaranteed) next summer. Sign him and you're basically looking at a couple minimum signings and maybe a chopped-up mid-level exception to not risk going into the luxury tax. Maybe they try to nab a veteran or two for cheap looking for a chance at a ring - Richard Jefferson, Al Harrington and Luke Ridnour could all fit the description - while also maybe seeing if a young guy with remaining upside like Jan Vesely or Jimmer Fredette wants a chance to reboot his career in Indiana. Ultimately, though, there will be little opportunity for high-leverage fixes here. 

Trade

Like many teams in their position of ostensible contention, the Pacers have few trade chips of note whose dismissal wouldn't constitute at least a partial roster rebuild. As a result of their poor and/or uncommitted drafting over the past four years, the team has no players of value still on their rookie contract (only Solomon Hill, who was seen as an overdraft at the time and did little in his rookie season to dissuade that notion). Otherwise, their medium contracts are all players of limited league-wide interest (Copeland, Watson, Scola, Mahinmi) or players either too expensive or too integral to the Pacers' core (George Hill, West, George) to be tradeable. 

The possible exception would be Hibbert, whose unevenness may be getting on the last nerve of the franchise, and who is still owed an awful lot of money (about $30 million over the next two years). The center's defensive prowess, though occasionally exploitable, is still considerable, and there are probably some teams out there - the Mavericks, for instance, or the Hawks, or perhaps the Blazers, who even tried to sign Roy when he hit free agency two summers ago - who might be willing to eat his hefty price tag for the chance to land a true paint anchor for their D. 

A deal with the Mavs could be especially interesting if Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson take their trademark player-rehabilitation interest in Stephenson. In that case, the Mavs could ask for Lance in a sign-and-trade, including Monta Ellis - a similar offensive player, with lesser defense but far fewer headaches - along with, say, Brandan Wright, Shane Larkin, Wayne Ellington, and a future first. The Mavs would get their first true replacement for Tyson Chandler and their most dynamic young wing since at least the early days of Josh Howard, while the Pacers get to rebuild with some future assets, while freeing themselves from the Hibbert contract and Stephenson dilemma and getting a proven 20 PPG scorer in Ellis. 

It'd be a pretty desperate move for Indiana, but with the situation Indy finds itself in after this postseason, desperation might be the name of the game. 

The Big Picture

In reality, things might not be quite as dire as we paint them to be for the Pacers. Truth is, as wide as the gap between them and Miami seems after their just-wrapped six-gamer, you never know how it might look a year from now - especially if Paul George and a re-signed Lance Stephenson continue to grow as players at the rates they have over the last four years.

At full-strength, Miami might always be favored against them, but who knows when they'll be at full strength? The Heat have plenty of questions to be asked in free agency themselves, and as a team composed primarily of dudes in their 30's, injuries are going to be more and more of a factor with each passing year.

In the meantime, the Pacers could very conceivably maintain a lock on the No. 2 spot in the conference's hierarchy for several years to come simply by maintaining status quo. The Bulls could certainly get in the mix for that if they get a healthy, full-strength Derrick Rose back next year and/or land Kevin Love or Carmelo Anthony in the summer. The Wizards could possibly present a challenge if they reload this summer with the express purpose of gunning down Indiana in next year's playoffs (not impossible). But those are both pretty big ifs, and everyone else is either at least a year away or a year too late. It's all about timing and location in the NBA, and in 2014, the Pacers are sitting pretty in the East.

It's still disappointing for Pacers fans, though, because this was supposed to be the year that the team took the steps not just to challenge the Heat, but to beat them - to finally get over that hump and back to the Finals for the first time since 2000. And after the way this season ended, with the team crumbling internally and eventually losing to the Heat in a series that was a lot closer to an outright beatdown than your average six-gamer, it's pretty clear they're going to need a lot of luck and some outside help to have a chance of doing that anytime soon.

This Pacers team would hardly be in unprecedented territory as a team that was very good for an extended spell, but perhaps lacked the transcendent talent to defeat a well-constructed team employing the game's most dominant player. Hell, Indiana fielded a team like that at the turn of the century, who was unable to get past the Michael Jordan-led Bulls in the late '90s, and once MJ retired, lost to the Shaq-and-Kobe Lakers in the 2000 Finals. The mid-80's Bucks, the mid-90's Knicks, the mid-2000's Suns - It seems like every decade has at least one team like that, and that might be the ultimate fate of this Pacers squad.

Not a terrible place in NBA history, all told, but not the one that Indiana was hoping to find itself in at the end of this season.

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