Where do the Grizzlies go from here?

If there's been a better seventh-seeded basketball team this century than this season's Memphis Grizzlies, it's pretty hard to think of who that might be. Not only did the Grizzlies go to the conference finals just last season, but they arguably had a better roster - deeper, stronger, more versatile - than last year's squad.

Injuries to a couple of their best players and a head coaching transition that took the team a couple months to adjust to weighted down their final record, to the point that it was only the seventh-best in this year's historically stacked Western Conference. But they were as good as anyone once the calendar turned to 2014, and by season's end, you could have argued pretty easily that they were one of the five or six best teams in the entire league.

Unfortunately for Memphis, seeding matters a good deal in the playoffs, and regardless of their true skill level, their record said that they had to face off with the Oklahoma City Thunder - the West's No. 2 seed and a legitimate championship contender - in the first round. They took OKC to a hard-fought seven games, four of which went to overtime. Memphis won three of those four OT games, but in the end, they needed all four, as the Thunder won the other three games pretty convincingly and were able to move on, sending the Grizzlies fishing earlier than they probably should have been in a totally fair and just NBA playoff system.

The Grindhouse crew is likely looking at at least one more year with this roster core at this level of play, which is simultaneously encouraging and dispiriting if you're a Grizzlies fan. Here's how their present and future are looking a week or so after being sent to an early, if not inexplicable, playoff exit. 

The Good

The Grizzlies have one of the strongest player foundations in the league, with a four-man core - Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Tony Allen - who have been together for almost a half-decade now, have excellent chemistry together and have established Memphis' singular "grit and grind" identity as one of the league's strongest. All four are under contract until at least next season, and though none of the four are especially young, they haven't shown much decline over the last few years either, and Conley in particular has actually gotten better with every successive season.

Memphis has also done well to stabilize its sidelines and front office, as well. With respected NBA minds like Jason Levien and John Hollinger flanking GM Chris Wallace in the player personnel department, the Grizz have made any number of shrewd team-building moves (both minor and major) over the last few years, and team ownership (led by majority owner Robert Pera) has shown a willingness to go over the cap and into the tax, not submitting the team to small-market financial restrictions. Meanwhile after a rough start, new coach Dave Joerger has proven a tactician worthy of the Grizzlies brand, making the right adjustments (especially in the Thunder series) to maximize the two-way potential of a roster consisting of a large number of one-way rotation players.

The Grizzlies will have the 22nd pick in this summer's Draft - high enough in this deep class to potentially land a rotation player that can contribute fairly quickly - and they should have the mid-level exception to use in free agency, should their ownership be so inclined. Meanwhile, the sizeable contracts of Randolph, Gasol and Tayshaun Prince expire in the summer of 2015, giving Memphis a potential out (or at least a chance to retool somewhat) should they deem 2014-15 to be the team's last run with this current makeup.

The Bad

Though they'll probably have the mid-level this summer and potential cap space next summer, the Grizzlies aren't going to have a ton of room or maneuverability to immediately and considerably upgrade the roster going into next season. Even with the expiring contracts of Ed Davis, Mike Miller, Beno Udrih and James Johnson - all of whom gave them some level of production that will need replacing - the team should already be butting up against the salary cap before adding anything to their roster. Prince's final year (for nearly $8 million) stands out as a particular albatross, given that Tayshaun has proven virtually unplayable with his inability to produce offensively at this point in his career.

Meanwhile, the team doesn't have much coming down the pipeline in terms of young talent-either for the purposes of internal improvement or trade sweeteners. Mike Conley is the youngest of the team's core at 27, while younger rotation guys like Quincy Pondexter and Nick Calathes have little remaining upside. The team's most intriguing young talent of the last few years, the power forward Davis, ultimately fell out of the Grizzlies' rotation altogether, and will likely leave this summer for nothing as he hits restricted free agency.

Finally, Gasol, Allen and Randolph will all be in their 30's by the end of next season, with the first two missing a combined 50 games due to injury last year and Z-Bo always threatening to move into the role-player stage of his career.  While the Grizzlies could handle the loss or decline of one or two of those guys in the short term, there's no real long-term replacement in place for any of them, thus making the less-immediate future a somewhat murky one for Memphis pro hoops.

So with that potential long-term peril in mind, let's take a look at what short-term moves Memphis can make to extend their window for at least one more season.

The Draft

The story with Memphis and their personnel needs is the same as it's been, seemingly for the last half-dozen offseasons - they need wing shooting, particularly if it doesn't end up killing them on the defensive end. James Young and P.J. Hairston might be the best solutions for the Grizzlies to that goal, but both will likely be off the board by the time they choose in the draft, leaving them to consider a player like Rodney Hood, whose defensive game carries serious questions, or Cleanthony Early, whose athleticism might not quite be explosive enough for the NBA. Syracuse's Jerami Grant would also be a smart choice to inherit some minutes at backup power forward.

The interesting choice for them might end up being the wing Chad Ford currently projects as falling to Memphis: Clemson small forward K.J. McDaniels. McD's jumper remains a work in progress, so he won't help in that area right away, but his supernatural athleticism and sky-high defensive potential could make him an intriguing long-term replacement for Tony Allen on the wings, and potentially even a good floor-stretching four off the bench for the Grizz in a change-of-pace small-ball look.

In any event, whether Memphis picks a limited player who can fill a specific need for them or a long-term project with the upside to be a potential core fixture some years down the road, their choice will tell us a good deal about where they currently view their team, and whether they plan on going all in for a title run next season or reloading for future supremacy.

Free Agency

With the likely departures of Ed Davis and James Johnson in the off-season, and Mike Miller an uncertain return, the Grizzlies will have a good deal of frontcourt minutes to fill out in their rotation, and its unclear if they trust the lower names on their depth chart (Jon Leuer, Jamaal Franklin) to step into them just yet. If they don't re-sign Davis or Johnson and don't draft for the need, this will likely be an area addressed through free agency.

As far as low-rent, high-IQ veteran adds the Grizzlies could make to that end, Elton Brand would probably make a little sense if both sides feel he has at least one good year left in him, or Glen "Big Baby" Davis if Memphis can pry him away from Doc Rivers. If they feel like investing in a younger power forward, Jeff Adrien and Josh McRobets could both probably make for good fits.

I'd also keep an eye on Pelicans small forward Al-Farouq Aminu and Nuggets combo forward Jan Vesely, either of whom could give the Grizz roster the kind of shot in the arm that James Johnson did when Memphis picked him up midway through last season.

The key for Memphis' summer might be getting Miller to return on a minimum (or at least minimal) deal. He proved an invaluable floor-spacer for this year's roster, and a surprisingly durable one at that, which might mean he tests his value on the open market this summer. As a two-time Grizzly beloved by the community, he might give Memphis a hometown discount to allow them to address other needs in the offseason, which would be absolutely huge for the team's flexibility. If not, a low-maintenance wing shooter like Alan Anderson or Jordan Hamilton might also be a free-agency consideration for Memphis.

Trade

Since pulling off the biggest mid-season trade of 2012-13 with the deal that sent Rudy Gay to Toronto, the Grizzlies have done well to add minor pieces like Lee, Calathes and Kosta Koufos via trade, and may look to make similar moves this summer. Another Gay-sized mega-deal seems unlikely anytime soon, but I could see them trying to poach Tyler Zeller from the frontcourt-crowded Cavs, or maybe finding out if the Kings want to part with any of their dozen mid-leveled bench forwards (Jason Thompson, Carl Landy, Derrick Williams).

Alternatively, the Grizzlies could do some interesting things if they decided to package Prince's expiring deal with their first-round pick in the pursuit of another real impact player. Such a package, perhaps with Franklin or Leuer as a throw-in, could probably persuade Philadelphia to give up Thaddeus Young, for instance, who wouldn't totally solve Memphis' issues with shooting and spacing, but would give them a good deal more lineup versatility, and certainly a hell of a lot more scoring punch, than Prince does currently. If they wanted to go that route, it'd also be interesting to see if they could entice a potentially rebuilding Denver to give up Danillo Gallinari, who would give the Grizzlies' offense an enormous boost if he could get beck to the level of play he was at before his ACL tear last season.

Of course, such deals would not be without consequences for the Grizzlies, who are already out a protected first-round pick in 2015 and who might want to maintain financial flexibility in the pursuit of a more thorough rebuild once so many of their contracts (including Prince's) expire that summer. But if the Grizzlies believe their window is now and that they might not get another, better chance for some time to come, one of these deals might be worth the risk and the expenditure.

The Big Picture

Last postseason, the Grizzlies caught an enormous amount of good fortune, as they drew a Clippers squad with an ailing Blake Griffin and a lame-duck coach in the first round, and then a Thunder team suddenly down their second-best player (and primary playmaker) in the second round. This postseason, they had a considerable amount of bad fortune, slipping to an unrepresentative seventh seed and drawing a finally-full-strength Thunder in the first round.

That's basketball: Sometimes circumstances go your way, and sometimes they don't, and that can make all the difference between having a long, successful postseason run or an abortive, disappointing one.

And that's also where the Grizzlies are probably at right now. They don't really have the means or assets to dramatically improve their roster this summer, and they're far too good to consider a rebuild with any seriousness. So what they can do (and what I expect they will do) is to put themselves in as good a position as possible to get back in the playoffs with decent seeding, hope that this is a postseason where they catch more breaks than they don't, and be prepared to capitalize on the opportunity if so. They won't make many offseason headlines for it, but you can bet that when we're back in the playoffs next season, they'll be as much of a factor as ever. It's a strategy that's worked pretty well for the Spurs nearly every summer for the last 15 years, anyway.

After next season, Memphis will have some difficult and weighty questions to answer about their future, and they'll likely have to pay some sort of short-term or long-term price whatever path they go down. But for next season at least, the Grizzlies should be back in full effect, and the Grindhouse should be rocking once more come April and May. If everything goes right, maybe even into June as well.