Where do the Bulls go from here?
The Chicago Bulls were eliminated from the postseason last night, losing to the Washington Wizards in five games. It was alternately both an extremely disappointing and thoroughly inspiring season for the Bulls: For a team that was considered preseason to be one of the four or five true title contenders, losing in the first round is undoubtedly a dispiriting end, but for a team that saw its best player lost to season-ending injury and one of its other All-Stars traded mid-season for virtually nothing, making the playoffs at all was a huge accomplishment worth celebrating on its own.
Such is the semi-tragic nature of the 2010s Chicago Bulls, who have been unable to get to full-strength for three postseasons now. The health of franchise player and former MVP Derrick Rose has loomed over this franchise since he tore his ACL during the first round in 2012, and seems likely to continue to mark their fate for as long as he's on the roster. If he ever gets back to full-strength, there's no reason this team couldn't seriously contend every year for at least the next half-decade, but if not, they might forever remain a brilliantly designed luxury automobile without a gas pedal, lacking the guy who ever makes them go.
The Bulls can't control Rose's health, but at least they've done a very good job of building the team around him to be contending if and when he ever gets right again. Here's where they're at for this off-season and moving forward.
The Good:
At the very least, the Bulls seem set in the frontcourt for just about forever. Every time it seems like Joakim Noah has reached his cap as a pro, he takes another evolutionary step, as he emerged this season as not only the Bulls' defensive anchor and emotional leader, but now their point center as well, leading the team in assists as well as rebounds and blocks. Next to him off the bench, Taj Gibson has emerged as a two-way star, an offensive cog and post threat to match starter Carlos Boozer, while also remaining an elite defender at his position--not to mention by far their best player this postseason. Noah has already won Defensive Player of the Year, Gibson seems a strong bet to win Sixth Man of the Year, and both are signed for at least the next two seasons.
The Bulls have also proven adept at finding players off the free-agency scrap heap and late in the draft who have been able to contribute at a high level for them. 30th pick of 2011 Jimmy Butler has stepped into the Deng role as wing defensive stopper and secondary playmaker, and though his shooting was erratic this season, he still earned enough of the trust of coach Tom Thibodeau to lead the team in minutes. Meanwhile, the Bulls were able to approximate the lost playmaking and scoring of rose with reclamation project D.J. Augustin, who was picked up off the Raptors' discard pile and managed to average 15 points and five assists a game for the Bulls off the bench.
It all feeds through Thibodeau, who has been a Coach of the Year candidate in all four of his seasons at the helm for the Bulls. This year, he rallied a team gutted by injuries and trades, rejiggered their offense to run through Noah and Augustin, and led them all the way from what seemed like a sure trip to the lottery back to home-court advantage in the playoffs. Seemingly as long as the Bulls have Thibodeau and the skeleton of his type of roster, they should be able to at least make the playoffs every season.
And finally, the Bulls have an enviable treasure trove of future assets at their rebuilding disposal. They have two first-round picks this June--their own at #19 and another at #16 long owed to them by the Bobcats--as well as the overdue arrival of 2011 first-rounder Nikola Mirotic from overseas, where he's been a Spanish-league MVP and looks to be a future stud at power forward for the Bulls. They can use the three assets to restock their lineup for a run next year, or they can use them in trade to land a star to complement Rose and Noah--and if they don't do the latter through trade, they probably can through free agency, where they're just an amnestying of Carlos Boozer and a couple other minor deals away from having the cap space to land a potential max free agent.
The Bad:
Despite all the good for the Bulls, it still all comes back to the health of Rose, who's owed another $60 million over the next three years and hasn't been healthy for the last three postseasons. As great as the team might be around him, if Rose can't go--or, if after a couple devastating leg injuries, he's just not the same guy he was in his MVP days--they're still a crucial piece away. Without Rose's shot creation, playmaking and electric scoring, the Bulls just don't have the offensive spark (as currently constituted, anyway) to seriously contend for the title. Rose's health is progressing, but the Bulls may have a bullet to dodge with Team USA basketball this summer, where Rose could look to try out his legs (and potentially risk re-injury) if his recovery remains on track.
Beyond Rose, there are some questions to be answered in the Bulls' point guard depth chart. Kirk Hinrich and DJ Augustin are both free agents this offseason, and if the Bulls end up pursuing a big fish in free agency, they might not have the space to resign either point, especially if they ask for more than the relative pittances they were making this season. The Bulls certainly need some sort of insurance policy behind Rose at this point, so if it's not Hinrich or Augustin--and you could ask at this point if either of those guys would really be the answer anyway--they'll need to fill that position some way this summer.
And as valuable as Tom Thibodeau is to this franchise, the Bulls haven't exactly shown a ton of loyalty to their coach, dismissing one of his top assistants in Ron Adams last season and trading one of his favorite players in Luol Deng against his wishes this season. Rumors persist that Thibodeau does or will eventually want out--just rumors for now, but worth keeping a nervous eye on for Bulls fans this summer and moving forward.
Now that you've got that, here's what they can do this summer to retool for next year and beyond.
The Draft:
It seems unlikely to me that a contending team like the Bulls would hold on to both of their mid-1st-round picks this summer. In all likelihood, I think they either trade one or both picks in an effort to add veteran talent, or maybe they end up selling off one or both of the picks to get out of their respective cap holds and add to the room they need to pursue a high-leverage free agent or two. However, if they hit, cheap draft picks can be invaluable assets to a contending team like the Bulls in extending their championship window, so I'm hoping they hold on to at least one of them.
If they do, they could always use another athletic wing shooter, like Kentucky's James Young or Duke's Rodney Hood, and Wichita State forward Cleanthony Early would also make for an interesting add to the Bulls' rotation with his shooting and toughness. The team will also probably take a look at Swiss project big man Clint Capela, who if he develops right, could make for a great long-term backup for Noah, replacing the long-missed Omer Asik.
Personally, I think it might be in their interest to reach a little bit for one of the draft's point guard prospects. Louisiana-Lafayette's Elfrid Payton, who seems like a rawer, bigger Brandon Jennings in the backcourt, could give the Bulls' bench an offensive spark they're badly lacking, and UConn's Shabazz Napier would give Chicago an undersized shooter and playmaker to pick up where Augustin left off, should DJ not be re-signed.
And ultimately, as a team that's already pretty well stocked, the Bulls have the luxury of just laying in the weeds and selecting whatever player they like that ends up slipping in the draft for whatever and hope he turns into a long-term piece for them. UCLA guard Zach LaVine or Croatian point forward Dario Saric might not be the best guy for them right now, but they might end up being the best guy period in three or four years, and that might be worth taking a shot on in this draft.
Free Agency:
Well, this is the big question, isn't it? The Bulls are rumored to be strong in the hunt for likely free-agent-to-be Carmelo Anthony, hoping that a season of missing the playoffs (and four seasons of playing for Jim Dolan) will be enough to get him to jump ship. The Bulls will need to amnesty Boozer and jettison a couple minor deals (Mike Dunleavy, Tony Snell, hopefully not Jimmy Butler) to have the space to pursue Melo, and he might have to take a slightly lower yearly value to prevent the team from gutting their roster for him, as the Knicks did in 2011. But the appeal of playing for a contending team in a major market, and one that badly needs his offensive production, will likely hold some sway for 'Melo, and if the Bulls can get him--even if it means cutting some current rotation guys and holding off on bringing over Mirotic for at least another year--they likely will.
If Carmelo ends up staying in New York--and I'd bet that loyalty, money and Phil Jackson do ultimately convince him to stick around--the Bulls can instead use the space to throw big money at another big free agent, maybe a restricted like Eric Bledsoe or Gordon Hayward. They could also make a killer offer for Indiana's Lance Stephenson, betting on his talent, already impressive production and seemingly yet-to-be-reached potential, and hope that the Bulls' strong culture can keep his behavior in line.
Or, they could just reload with another couple veteran low or mid-level free agents that fit their style--say, Trevor Ariza and Elton Brand--try to bring over Mirotic, take big swings with their couple of draft picks, and bet on Rose's health and the team's own internal improvement for another year being the difference in making them contenders again. It's mostly good options for Chicago in free agency this offseason, though whichever route they take will undoubtedly be crucial in dictating the shape of the team over the next several years.
Trade:
With their surfeit of assets, they'll certainly have trade partners lining up to deal with them this summer if they're so inclined. A first-rounder alone would probably be enough to pry tweener forward Thaddeus Young from Philadelphia, whose versatility on both sides of the ball would certainly give the Bulls options in the frontcourt, and they could probably put together a package to make Orlando think about dealing them Arron Afflalo, who would be an excellent scoring and shooting option for them in the backcourt alongside Derrick Rose next year.
What I'd really like to see them do is to see if they can figure out a way to get Al Horford away from the Hawks. He'd be the perfect frontcourt partner for Joakim Noah--he was for a couple championship-winning years at Florida, certainly--and an ideal pick-and-pop partner for Derrick Rose, expanding the Bulls' offensive attack in totally new ways, though it'd take a package of Mirotic, at least one draft pick and probably another player or two to make it even a discussion. But Atlanta already has one All-Star power forward in Paul Millsap, and it's a little tough to see how he and Horford can have success in the frontcourt together long-term. Worth pursuing at least a bit, I think.
The Big Picture
The Bulls are still mostly in an enviable position, with one of the league's strongest team cultures, one of its best head coaches, and--especially when actually healthy--one of its best player cores as well. This summer will undoubtedly be a pivotal one for the franchise, though, as they have a potential combination of cap space and rebuilding assets that few teams as established as them ever have at their disposal to improve their team and help them get to that next level in an increasingly unsure-looking Eastern Conference. Whether or not they get Carmelo, it's hard to imagine they won't enter next season as at least co-favorites in the conference.
Still, without Rose, it might all be for naught. If he's unhealthy or compromised again next season--at which point, it'd be impossible to ever have faith of him regaining his MVP form for any extended period again--it's hard to see how the Bulls will have the offensive firepower needed to contend for a championship. In that sense, if the Bulls don't believe Rose will ever be Rose again, their pursuit of Carmelo Anthony does become pivotal, because he remains one of the few players in the league as capable as Rose of keying an entire offense around. However, without a healthy Rose to pair with him, their pursuit of Anthony becomes that much more challenging.
The Bulls have their work cut out for them this offseason. They'll be in the picture next postseason regardless, but the decisions they make in the next few months will likely dictate if they're ticketed for a long run or another first-round exit.