Getting the Suns to dream bigger at the trade deadline
I was excited over the weekend to see the Phoenix Suns officially enter the trade-rumor fray with the revelation that they had engaged the Los Angeles Lakers in discussions over Pau Gasol. The Suns have been one of the league's best stories this season, unexpectedly climbing to the West's second tier and playoff contention in a season everyone where expected them to still be struggling to crack double-digits in wins at the All-Star Break. As a team expecting to tank, they're in the rare position where they're set up to rebuild through the draft but are also pretty well-stocked at the moment, an advantageous but somewhat awkward position to be in, and one which a big trade or two dealing future assets for present ones can do a great deal to help clarify.
However, I do wonder with Pau is really the best the Suns can do. He probably wouldn't cost the Suns a ton--a first-round pick and one of their bench full of possible future rotation players, perhaps--but he's also a 33 year-old in obvious decline who becomes a free agent this summer. The chances of him helping the Suns beyond this season are slim, and I think for a team in Phoenix's current situation, they shouldn't be looking for rentals--they should be looking for the chance to add a guy who's going to be a core part of their team for years to come.
Let us not forget two things. One is that as well as the Suns are doing this season, there are still only two players on the team you would be comfortable with tabbing as a potential top-three player on a championship-caliber team, and they both play in the backcourt. Traditional team building says you need at least one frontcourt player on that level too to really contend, and while a guy with that kind of upside might conceivably already be on the Suns' roster somewhere, he's not likely to make his presence known this season, and maybe not for another year or two to come.
The second is that the Suns will (probably) have four first-round picks in the upcoming draft, through a variety of shrewd trades that no one else in the league seems able to pull off right now. That's quite the bouquet of assets, but they're almost more helpful to the Suns in theory than in practice. Phoenix already has their hands as full as any team in the league in the player-development department, and to add four first-round picks--none of which are likely to be in the top ten--to a team that already has a crowded rotation and a less-than-clear hierarchy seems like it could make the roster, in the words of DJ Shadow, a little bit "too future" for their own good.
So while it makes sense to me that the Suns would want to trade one of their picks for a player that can help them today and tomorrow, I wonder why they should even stop there. Why not trade two of the picks, for a guy that can really help? Why not three? Why not all four? The Suns have the additional advantage of being able to package that magical Emeka Okafor expiring deal, which means they don't need much further help to match salaries in a deal for nearly any player in the league, and just about everybody except the Suns wants in on this upcoming megadraft in the worst way. Phoenix can add a potential core player right now at virtually no expense to their current roster, and all it'll cost them in terms of future is a draft that might not have helped them all that much anyway. And hey, if they realize they do eventually need the roster-replenishing, they'll still have a couple first-rounders in the 2015 draft, including a scarcely protected pick from the Lakers. Life is good for the Phoenix Suns.
Let's take a look, then, at some of the guys Phoenix might think about targeting in the next few weeks if they want to set their sights a little higher than Pau Gasol, getting higher and higher as we go along. I say go for it, you crazy Suns.
GORDON HAYWARD, UTAH JAZZ
What It'd Take: Archie Goodwin and their own first-rounder
We'll start with a couple options that don't even require the Okafor expiring to be possible. The Suns and the rebuilding Jazz are both far enough under the cap that neither team really needs to worry about matching salaries, especially for a player like Hayward still on his rookie contract. The Suns can just throw in an upside guy like Christmas and tack on one of their less-valuable first-rounders to snag Hayward, a versatile wing that serves as a do-everything guy for the Suns and fits brilliantly into their run-and-gun system. Hayward's shooting numbers have dipped this year, but he's not playing with nearly the playmaking talent in Utah that it he would be in Phoenix, and his recent-ish 37/11/7 explosion (on 13-16 shooting!) in the Jazz's upset win over OKC this year proves how dynamic a player he can be in this league.
Of course, the drawback for the Suns (and the reason the rebuilding Jazz would consider parting with Hayward) is that he becomes a restricted free agent in the summer, and might cost them a good deal in the summer. But to me, Hayward makes more sense as a core piece on the Suns than he does on the still very far away Jazz, and he might be worth about ten million a year to Phoenix if he'd take such an extension. And the Jazz need help just about everywhere, so they might be willing to deal their soon-to-be expensive asset for a couple cheaper ones. I'd like to see Hayward on a League Pass team that's actually somewhat watchable, anyway.
NIKOLA VUCEVIC, ORLANDO MAGIC
What It'd Take: Miles Plumlee and the Wolves' first-rounder
Does Orlando believe in Nikola Vucevic as one of the core players that will lead their team out of the darkness? Hard to tell, and hard to say if they even should or not, but Big Vooch has at least established himself as one of the league's most solid young centers, a double-double machine with the potential to absolutely erupt in a big game for 30 and 20 every once in a while. The Suns would certainly like a post guy they can lean on like that, especially one young and athletic enough to still get up and down the court with the rest of the crew. If they believe Vucevic still has another level to reach as a pro, it might be worth tabbing him as the team's center of the future--even when he hits restricted free agency in summer 2015.
The question is whether he's enough of an upgrade over Miles Plumlee to make the investment worthwhile. Plumlee was viewed as a throw-in when Phoenix unloaded Luis Scola to Indiana over the summer, but he's had an impressive breakout season under Jeff Hornacek, averaging nearly ten points and nine rebounds himself, while showing fantastic athleticism, shot-blocking skill and a real tenacity on the court. He has nowhere near the offensive polish of Vucevic, but if he continues to improve, there's reason to think he could someday be on close to the same level. But he's not as young as you'd think--Plumlee is already 25, actually two years older than Vucevic--and he's never been a consistent scorer in his college or pro career, so the potential for Vucevic as a true post player might be worth flipping Plumlee with a mid-range first-rounder.
But anyway, these first two were really just the warm-up trades. The next three are when things really get interesting.
AL HORFORD, ATLANTA HAWKS or BROOK LOPEZ, BROOKLYN NETS
What It'd Take: Miles Plumlee, Emeka Okafor and at least two of their better first-rounders
This would be a trade of confusing emotions for Suns fans, since it actually would hurt their chances of being competitive this season, with both Horford and Lopez out for the rest of the season and unable to contribute to any Phoenix playoff, with the loss of Plumlee leaving Phoenix thin up front in the meantime. But the chance to add a franchise-level frontcourt player, and true post threat--either one among the league's best, and only now entering their most productive years, if they can ever stay healthy--is one that doesn't come around too often, and if the Suns have to tank their playoff chances this season to get one, you'd have to imagine they'd take it. After all, they weren't even supposed to be here this season.
Would the Hawks and/or Nets do it? Well, the Hawks have been working up quite the compilation of first-rounders themselves, and this trade would give them the league's greatest treasure trove of assets to potentially upgrade their mediocre backcourt situation, while shedding a bit of frontcourt redundancy and fortifying their frontlines for this a playoff run this season. Meanwhile, the Nets would basically get out from draft purgatory, and actually have a chance of rebuilding for the future, while keeping this year's suddenly competitive roster in tact for their own crack at the East. Plus, two Plumlees at once! Can't beat that.
It's all about health here, of course. If Atlanta or Brooklyn are getting worried enough about their respective big men's recurring injuries to deem them risks for long-term investment, they might be willing to part with them here, and Phoenix might take the risk of betting on one of them because...well, where else are you going to get Brook Lopez or Al Horford? Both trade ideas are ridiculously intriguing to me and I hope everyone involved is reading and currently taking notes.
CHRIS BOSH, MIAMI HEAT
What It'd Take: Miles Plumlee, Marcus Morris, Emeka Okafor and two first-rounders
No way, right? You don't break up the Big Three with the chance to win the title, especially not when Bosh has been so productive this season and Wade's health has been so erratic. You can't risk giving up on the three-peat, especially if there's a chance it means alienating LeBron in the process and risking him bolting in free agency. You just can't shake up your roster like this when you're the Miami Heat.
Probably true. But let's think about it from the other side for a minute. Let's say Miami does stand pat this year, and they don't win the title, falling short to any of the younger and far hungrier teams sick of taking a back seat to LeBron and the Heatles. Then what? ESPN's Chad Ford has said that of the Big Three, Bosh is the most likely to opt out this season and seek a different role elsewhere, eager to prove once more that he can play a larger part in a championship-contending team than he's been asked to on the Heat. No way will Miami be able to replace Bosh in free agency, and then LeBron's looking at committing to re-up with Wade (maybe), Chalmers (maybe), and...who else? Norris Cole? Chris Andersen? The decomposing corpse of Udonis Haslem? We sure LeBron's feeling that gameplan?
Fact of the matter is, the Heat don't have much in the way of future plans, and once the present starts looking less than 100% rosy, they could be in real, real trouble. Dealing Bosh now would hurt a lot, and maybe ruin their chances of threepeating, but it also might be their best chance at staying competitive for years to come, with a couple good young rotation guys in Plumlee and Morris--maybe the Heat could even hold out for Markieff instead of Marcus--and the chance to add considerable further young talent in this year's draft, a kind of mini-retooling that could reasonably extend their competitive window convincingly enough for LeBron to consider sticking around for the next four-five years after this. It'd be a very tough call to make, but you have Pat Riley around to make those tough calls, and if I were him, I'd have to at least give the idea some consideration.
And on the Suns' end...it's a lot to give up for any one player, but again, the chance to get a frontcourt player of Bosh's caliber--and don't get it twisted, much as we all like to take shots at the guy, he's gonna be a deserving Hall-of-Famer before all is said and done--doesn't come around often, and it's one the Suns would likely need to take advantage of if it came around, provided (of course) they believed that he would resign after the season. And if Bosh is looking for an expanded role on a different, still-competitive team, he couldn't find a much better one situation than Phoenix, which likes to use their big men to stretch the floor the way they did in Miami, but doesn't quite have ball-dominating perimeter players on the level of LeBron and Wade to keep him from getting touches. He'd be a battle-tested veteran presence, and the Suns could (hopefully) pair him with Alex Len down the line to provide the shot-blocking and protection behind him and save him from having to play too minutes at center.
I love this idea too, and it would certainly bring the basketball world to its knees if it went down. But maybe not as much as this next one...
KEVIN LOVE, MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
What It'd Take: Emeka Okafor, Markieff Morris and all four 2014 first-rounders
Ooh boy. Could the Timberwolves really bring themselves to deal Kevin Love, a borderline-MVP candidate and one of only two true franchise players the team has had in their quarter-century of existence, before they absolutely absolutely had to? Well, let's take a look at the facts:
1. The Wolves have hovered around .500 basically all year, and are really only getting further away from the playoff race, not closer to it.
2. The Wolves are built more around established veteran players at this point than high-upside young guns, meaning that they aren't likely to get a whole lot better from within over the next few years--especially since they dumped their first-round pick this summer to these very Suns a couple summers ago, just to get out of Wesley Johnson's contract.
3. The Wolves made the silly mistake of extending Kevin Love's contract for only four years, not five, and the even sillier mistake of giving him an opt-out clause after the third year, meaning that he could ostensibly be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2015.
4. ESPN's Chris Broussard reported a rival GM calling it a "100 percent certainty" that Love would sign with the Lakers in summer 2015
So those facts...not exactly making it look all that bright for the Wolves' future with Kevin Love, are they?
It's a terrible thing to have to trade a player of Kevin Love's caliber before it becomes a necessity, but as most of you surely remember, there is recent precedent--when the Jazz traded Deron Williams to the Nets over a year before his contract was up, as a pre-emptive rebuild move that netted them Derrick Favors and a future top-five pick in exchange for their unhappy franchise PG. Love is probably better now than D-Will was then, but that's why the Suns are giving up four first-round picks in the most hyped draft in a decade for him, as well as a talented young guy in Morris and all the cap relief the Wolves need to start rebuilding in the Okafor expiring.
Meanwhile, in the process of the trade, the Wolves not only get back the pick they'd eventually own Phoenix, they also remove all motivation to win games this season--minus, of course, further depressing their already comatose-by-necessity fanbase--and therefore can take the final 30+ games of the season to slip further in the standings, maybe dealing Kevin Martin and J.J. Barea in the process, and making sure their own pick falls in the top ten. Then next season, they can start to rebuild with Nikola Pekovic, Ricky Rubio, Markieff Morris, and four first-round picks, including at least one likely to be in the mid-lottery. It's not gonna make them contenders by 2015, but it's about as good (and definitely a quick) a restart as they could ask for. If they're going to lose Love anyway--and the evidence certainly appears to be pointing in that direction--it's the prudent move to make.
But if you're the Suns, do you give that much up for Kevin Love, especially if he's as determined to go to LA in 2015 as those pesky anonymous GMs claim? I think the answer is yes, and I don't even think you take all that long deliberating it. This is Kevin Love we're talking about--you get to enter the 2014 playoffs with him, Dragic and Bledsoe, and it almost doesn't matter who else is on the team. But Phoenix can probably make this deal while also keeping most of their other core in tact--maybe they also have to give up Goodwin or even Len as well, but they'd probably swallow that one as well--and now if they're not contenders right away, they probably will be by the 2015 playoffs.
And as for Love leaving in 2015, I think the Suns take their chances with that. After two playoff runs with Bledsoe, Dragic, Hornacek and the rest of the young, improving, run-and-gun Suns, playing in the warmth of Phoenix with their legendary medical staff...would Love really leave that behind to pursue his California Dreams in the backseat to Kobe's inevitable retirement tour, while the rest of the roster consists of lord even knows who? I wouldn't bet on it.
Maybe some of these trades are pipe dreams, and I'd be (pleasantly) surprised to see any of them actually come to fruition before the deadline 16 days from now. But this is the scope with which I think the Suns should be planning now. Their season has already been a memorable one, but they have the means, the assets and the motivation to do something truly special, if they and at least one other team have the guts. You can't take the future first-rounders with you, guys.