The NBA Fork Index of Aging Stars: Nov. 2013
Maybe it's just part of the sunrise, sunset nature of professional sports, but as the NBA gods introduce us to this incredible-looking class of college and international phenoms expected to join the pro ranks next season, they also seem to finally be phasing out some of our former favorites. One month into the 2013-14 season, it seems like a lot of the old guard--including some guys who appeared ever aging-proof--have finally started to show real signs of slippage, some maybe to a point where it's getting beyond recovery. Some of it might be early-season veteran malaise, but in some cases, it might just be...over. Sad to say, but you know what they say about Mother Nature's Wooden-esque statistical dominance.
Anyway, to track how close to the end some of our favorite old guys are getting, I've introduced the NBA Fork Index, grouping these vet guys by the degree of fork currently sticking out of their backs. To be eligible for the Fork Index, a player has to have played in the league for at least ten years, has to have been an All-Star-caliber player (though an actual All-Star appearance is not required, as long as it would've been feasible at some point), and has to have been at least decently productive or relevant in the league last season. The players will be listed in tiers of forkedness, progressing from the least-forked to the most-forked.
These rankings are of course subject to change over the course of the season, as some vets will undoubtedly start to hit their old grooves while others begin to see their skills begin to erode some. But for now, in late-November 2013, here's how the NBA veteran crop stands, fork-wise:
NOT FORKED YET:
Dirk Nowitzki. He's not Summer of 2011 Dirk anymore, for sure, and anecdotally speaking, it seems like he's missed a higher degree of makeable shots this season--though for Dirk, just about anything seems like a makeable shot, so maybe it's not a fair assessment. But even if so, the German Moses is still utterly ridiculous--20.8 points per game on a True Shooting percentage of60 and a PER of 23.01, All-Star-caliber numbers for a team that's gotten off to a not-totally-expected good start. His rebounding and shot-blocking numbers have continued to drop and will only get smaller from here, but in terms of offensive production, Dirk remains one of the league's great weapons, even in his 16th season.
Ray Allen. The guy is just incredible. 18 years into his career and the only thing that really seems to change is his usage rate--otherwise, Ray-Ray is basically putting up numbers identical to those he posted in Boston, if not quite in his starrier turns in Milwaukee and Seattle. He still hits a couple threes a game at a nearly 40% clip, he still shoots brilliantly from the line and barely ever turns the ball over, and this year, he's even distributing at a better rate than he his since the Sonics, averaging 3.4 assists per 36 minutes. It seems like he could play this part for the Heat for another five years if he wanted, and then for another five years as a situational reliever, coming in at the end of games when one single big three-pointer (or at least the threat of one) is needed. Even if it's for the hated Heat, that's a pretty cool thing.
SALAD FORK:
Tim Duncan. He's still an integral part of one of the best teams in the league, and he's still an elite, irreplaceable force on defense for a team giving up just 90 points a game. Still, it's getting harder and harder to write off Timmy's miserable shooting start to the season as just a bad slump. He's still under 40% for the year, and when you look at his shot chart--including a resounding 1-14 from the top of the key area, where he shot 35-70 last season--it's really pretty ugly, nearly as ugly as his flat, line-drive release looks in live action. There's still plenty of season for him to get it together, but until then, you can't help but wonder if the 37-year-old just doesn't have the legs to be an inside-out offensive threat anymore.
Pau Gasol. With Kobe out and Dwight Howard in Houston, most of us expected Pau to put up throwback numbers almost by default on this Lakers team lacking other proven offensive options. Instead, Pau has struggled finding his scoring touch, especially in the post, while the Lakers have taken a borderline-communistic approach to scoring, with anyone from Jodie Meeks to Xavier Henry to Jordan Hill just as likely as Gasol to lead the team in points from night to night. However, his numbers have perked up a bit recently--18.8 points a game on 52.5% shooting over the last five games after 13 points on 39% shooting for the first 11, leading to hope that Pau can have his fork totally dislodged by season's end.
Paul Pierce. You have to give Pierce a little bit of a pass here, since his struggles with the Nets have largely come since Brook Lopez and Deron Williams went down--he was only ever supposed to be a supporting player this year, and for the first six games this year, he did just fine at that, averaging 14/6/3 a game on 49% shooting, all very respectable numbers for an offensive third or fourth option. Since then, though, it's been unrecognizably hideous for for Pierce, still averaging 13 but doing it on 31.3% shooting (23% from deep), missing shots it feels like he's made consistently his whole career. A better night against the Raptors possibly portends a rebound, and lord knows getting Brook and Deron back will help, but this has been a very hard Truth for us to digest so far this season.
DINNER FORK:
Vince Carter. A lot of us were ready to stick the fork in Vince two seasons ago, but Half Man turned out to be still at least a Quarter Amazing his last two seasons in Dallas, shooting better than he had in years and inheriting the sixth-man swag of the departed Jason Terry. But this year, Vince just looks labored, and he's just about the only guy on the Mavs not currently hitting shots--he's averaging 11 a game on just 38% shooting (34% from deep), and serving as a ball-stopper in the team's otherwise free-flowing offense. Vince doesn't have a whole lot to offer the NBA at this point besides his scoring, so if he can't get his touch back before season's end, this might finally be the official end of Vinsanity.
Kevin Garnett. Again, a pass of sorts for KG, who is being asked to do way more than he should have to on the Nets at this point in his career thanks to the team's spate of injuries. However, Garnett's looked quite scary in the minutes he has gotten, an absolute liability on offense (-0.5 offensive Win Shares already, says Basketball-Reference) and a slipping defensive presence as well, though his 101 defensive rating is still by far the best on the Nets. At the very least, KG is still rebounding, grabbing a league-high 31.7% of available defensive boards while posting his best per-36 rebounding numbers since '04-'05. It's not much, but it's enough to cling to hope that Garnett still has something to give this Nets team with lofty aspirations.
CARVING FORK:
Amar'e Stoudemire. A couple flashes of the Amar'e of old to be found in the last few Knicks games--his first two double-digit scoring outings on the season--but mostly it's just old Amar'e at this point. He's not playable for long stretches of time, and he has to give LeBron-sized contributions on the offensive end just to break even from all he gives up on the defensive end, as the only big man in the league as incapable of giving adequate help defense as STAT might be his own teammate, Andrea Bargnani. He was actually pretty good in his sixth-man role for the Knicks in his brief runs of healthiness last year--on one side of the ball anyway--so there's at least something to shoot for, now that Mike Woodson has lifted his arbitrary minutes cap on Amar'e. But mostly, it's just sad how long ago Amare's dominant half a season in New York suddenly feels.
Elton Brand. It's been a long time since Elton Brand was a dominant player, but not all that long since he was a considerably productive one--his last two years in Philadelphia, he was a sneaky-awesome two way player, a Shawn Marion type who would have been the ideal fourth or fifth man on a championship-contending team. Atlanta hoped to get at least an echo of that when they signed Brand to a one-year, four-mil contract, but Brand's decreasing athleticism finally seems to have nullified his on-court usefulness, and his poor stats (2.3 points and 2.9 boards a game on 41% shooting in about ten minutes) and general poor fit with the open-court-minded Hawks has led to Elton falling out of Mike Budenholzer's rotation altogether--though I'm guessing he'll still get a crack at earning minutes somewhere, next year if not this, before he hangs it up entirely.
PITCHFORK:
Chauncey Billups. It might actually be worth 2.5 million a year to the Pistons just to have Mr. Big Shot as part of the franchise again, as a beloved fan favorite, a respected presence in the locker room and a signifier of more successful days. However, leadership and good PR seem about all Chauncey Billups has left to offer at this point in his career--in seven games, he shot just 33% and had a team-high turnover rate of about 20%. He's since gone down with knee tendinitis, and it seems like Chauncey is likely to oscillate between injured and ineffective for the rest of his career. He'll be a legend in Detroit for all time anyway, but it's hard to see him being any important part of the next great Pistons team.
Steve Nash. No sight this season has been as painful as watching a gimpy, aged Steve Nash trying and struggling to compete against NBA-level athleticism. He's been a defensive liability for years, but this season, he's not even a useful offensive player--something that seemed borderline inconceivable to ever have to say about Nash as recently as last season, where he came .3% away from posting his fifth 50/40/90 season and averaged nearly seven assists a game. This year, though, with just seven points a game on miserable 26% shooting, it looks like it might finally be over for the future Hall-of-Famer. He's said he hopes to make it back from his back and hamstring troubles, and he's certainly earned the right to attempt as many comebacks as he wants, but it's hard to imagine him ever looking like the Seven Seconds or Less Steve Nash again.