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Can Giannis single-handedly upset the Raptors?

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports / Action Images

The Toronto Raptors have more talent, more depth, more experience, and home-court advantage on their side, but the Milwaukee Bucks have the best player.

Giannis Antetokounmpo strung together a season for the ages to guide the Bucks into the postseason. He ranked top 20 in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks as a 22-year-old and will most likely win Most Improved Player before inevitably being crowned as MVP one day.

Standing at 7-foot with a 7-foot-3 wingspan, Antetokounmpo can play all five positions and do just about everything on a basketball court. But can he carry the Bucks to an upset over the third-seeded Raptors?

Who can defend Giannis?

The Raptors will have spent nearly a week planning for Antetokounmpo, and they will most likely split the tricky defensive assignment between DeMarre Carroll, P.J. Tucker, and Patrick Patterson.

All three options will each be disadvantaged in some way because Antetokounmpo is a walking mismatch. Carroll isn't strong enough, Tucker is too short, and Patterson might not have the foot speed to hang with Antetokounmpo along the perimeter.

The Bucks will also vary their sets to throw the Raptors into different scenarios. Milwaukee will consistently run its half-court action through Antetokounmpo, but he will alternate between screening for a pass on the roll, or handle the rock around a ball screen. Flipping the offense in this way challenges every Raptors defender to be able to guard both the paint and the perimeter.

Toronto could mitigate this confusion by switching actions involving Antetokounmpo, but this introduces problems of its own. Milwaukee loves to run Antetokounmpo around screens from the point guard, thus creating an easy mismatch where Antetokounmpo can post up, or shoot over top a smaller defender like Kyle Lowry.

This is a long way of saying that there isn't a simple answer for a unique problem like Antetokounmpo.

Raptors might be playing into a trap

The Raptors can only hope to contain an elite talent like Antetokounmpo and concede something down the line.

Taking away his transition opportunities should be the top priority, followed by walling off the paint in the half court. Conversely, it's not the end of the world if Antetokounmpo pops free for a jumper, but the Raptors appear to be rather stubborn in this regard.

"What happens too is when you start talking about guys you want to play off of, make them shoot jump shots, that makes you soft," Raptors head coach Dwane Casey told reporters.

"That makes you a soft team, and our experience this year has been guys who want to go under on pick and rolls, let's go over. Because when we go under, we become a soft team. So we're going to have our coverages and all that, but we don't want to disrespect anybody because he's an All-Star for a reason."

Casey's overconfidence might come back to haunt him. Scrambling his defense to chase Antetokounmpo off long jumpers will create open looks for others, and the Bucks are uniquely equipped to capitalize on a disorganized defense. The Bucks like to surround him with shooters and players like Malcolm Brogdon who can attack a closeout to get into the paint against a help defender.

Kidd's secret weapon

Jason Kidd could also deploy the nuclear option and play Antetokounmpo at center if the Bucks are in a pinch.

Spreading the floor with shooters is the best way to make use of Antetokounmpo's skillset. The Raptors readily collapse the paint and gratuitously send help, which is where Antetokounmpo can make them pay by finding the open man. The Raptors would really struggle with a lineup like Antetokounmpo, Brodgon, Tony Snell, Khris Middleton, and Mirza Teletovic.

Milwaukee would be making some concessions if they chose to downsize in this fashion. They would have nobody who could guard the post (a potential problem against a domineering brute like Jonas Valanciunas), and having Antetokounmpo protect the back line, then initiate offense for long stretches would wear him down.

But it's not like the Raptors are eager to rely on Valanciunas. Casey finishes games with Serge Ibaka as his lone big, and Ibaka isn't the type to back down a smaller player or dominate the glass. The Bucks can get away with downsizing so long as they contain the likes of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan with swarming traps along the perimeter.

Ultimately, the Bucks are the underdogs and Kidd will eventually need to strike big on a gamble. Playing Antetokounmpo at five promises more upside than relying on his "true" centers. The likes of Greg Monroe, Spencer Hawes, John Henson, and Thon Maker are all fundamentally flawed, whereas Antetokounmpo is brilliant at any position.

Series schedule

Raptors vs. Bucks Date Location Time (ET.) Network
Game 1 Apr. 15 Toronto 5:30 p.m. ESPN
Game 2 Apr. 18 Toronto 7 p.m. NBA TV
Game 3 Apr. 20 Milwaukee 8 p.m. NBA TV
Game 4 Apr. 22 Milwaukee 3 p.m. TNT
Game 5* Apr. 24 Toronto 7 p.m. NBA TV
Game 6* Apr. 27 Milwaukee TBD TBD
Game 7* Apr. 29 Toronto TBD TNT

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