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Clippers-Jazz: 3 factors that could swing West's most unpredictable series

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports / Action Images

The four-five matchup between the Los Angeles Clippers and Utah Jazz represents the lone first-round series in the Western Conference without a clear-cut favorite.

After both teams finished with identical 51-31 records, L.A. claimed home-court advantage by virtue of taking the regular-season series 3-1.

The red-hot Clippers, who went 11-2 to close out the regular season, have slightly higher title odds (five percent to Jazz's three), per FiveThirtyEight. That means little moving forward, though, if recent history is any indication. Since acquiring Chris Paul in 2011-12, the club has made the postseason five straight times. Despite being the more talented team in many cases, though, L.A. has suffered epic meltdowns that prevented it from advancing past the second round.

With several pieces of the core set to hit free agency this summer, including Blake Griffin and Paul, this could be the last we see of this group. Another first-round exit at the hands of a much less experienced club could very well spell the end of this era.

The Jazz are hoping that happens. They went from the lottery to a 50-win squad in the last three years thanks in large part to internal growth - especially from budding stars Gordon Hayward and Rudy Gobert - good coaching, and the offseason acquisitions of veterans George Hill, Joe Johnson, and Boris Diaw.

Here are three factors that could dictate the series:

Pain or Gain?

The Clippers have been relatively lucky on the health front, save for stretches when two of their best players, Paul and Griffin, were each sidelined for 22 contests.

On the other hand, Utah has been hurting all year. Although the club ranked fifth in total games missed due to injury, it was actually impacted the most, with injuries (especially to Hill) costing the Jazz an estimated nine wins.

But they didn't falter. Even though Quin Snyder's had his full starting lineup intact for just 13 games all year, they had the best season since 2010, when Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer were still running the show. Perhaps the most encouraging part is that Utah's won 11 of those games by an average of 10 points (second-best differential in the NBA).

However, it's concerning that as the regular season winds down, the injury bug is still gnawing at the Jazz. The statuses of starters Hayward, Derrick Favors, and Rodney Hood have been iffy, but they'll suit up for Wednesday's season finale against the San Antonio Spurs. If they're good to go for the playoffs, the Jazz should be able to hang with anybody.

Elite Defense vs. Elite Offense

This matchup will feature two teams with vastly different playing styles and strengths.

Utah boasts the stingiest defense in the Association. Anchored by a DPOY contender in Gobert, the Jazz excel at defending without fouling, and securing defensive boards. This helps limit opponents from racking up second-chance points, fast-break baskets, and points in the paint.

At the other end, the Jazz are one of the slowest teams at moving into the offense and don't score very much (28th in points) once they get there.

In contrast, the Clippers pour in points just as well as anybody. Doc Rivers' men score efficiently, get to the free-throw line often, take care of the ball, and seldom get their shots blocked.

It'll be fun to see Gobert challenge that. The Stifle Tower's the league-leading shot-blocker, accounting for more than half of his team's swats. It will also be interesting to see the adjustments Snyder makes in his first postseason go-around.

Key Matchup: Hayward vs. Mbah a Moute

(Photo courtesy: Action Images)

Can Hayward continue rolling in the playoffs against a dreaded foe?

The 27-year-old's having the best campaign of his career, averaging 22 points on a true shooting percentage of 59.4 to go along with 5.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and a steal.

However, the Clippers were one of the few teams this season that have been able to keep him in check, thanks to versatile defender Luc Mbah a Moute.

Hayward's stats when guarded by Mbah a Moute

Mbah a Moute GAMES MIN PTS TRB AST FG% 3FG% TOV
ON 3 23.1 9.7 3.7 1.7 32.3 33.3 1.7
OFF 3 8.7 6 0.7 0.7 54.5 75 0

Hayward's stats vs. Clippers

PTS TRB AST FG% 3FG% FT%
2016-17 22 5.4 3.5 46.9 39.9 84.4
vs. LAC 15.7 4.3 2.3 38.1 43.8 80

The Jazz will need more from Hayward, who earned his first All-Star nod this season, in order to get past the opening round. He told reporters Wednesday he's looking forward to the challenge.

Schedule

Clippers vs. Jazz Date Location Time (ET) Network
Game 1 Apr. 15 Los Angeles 10:30 p.m. ESPN
Game 2 Apr. 18 Los Angeles 10:30 p.m. TNT
Game 3 Apr. 21 Utah 10 p.m. ESPN2
Game 4 Apr. 23 Utah 9 p.m. TNT
Game 5* Apr. 25 Los Angeles TBD TBD
Game 6* Apr. 28 Utah TBD TBD
Game 7* Apr 30 Los Angeles TBD TBD

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