Projecting the first round of 2017-18 fantasy basketball drafts
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There is a chasm of uncertainty between now and the beginning of the next fantasy basketball season. Trades will be made and free agents will be signed, sometimes dramatically impacting a player's individual fantasy outlook.
Here's theScore's first forecast of the top-10 picks in standard head-to-head drafts for the upcoming 2017-18 season:
Pick 1: PG/SG/SF Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
In terms of defensive potential, Antetokounmpo is already in the upper-echelon of fantasy players. Short of improving on 0.6 3-pointers per game and raising his free-throw percentage above 80 percent, Antetokounmpo is already on track for a top-five draft pick.
The lack of other high-usage players in Milwaukee lifts him above the next three players on the draft board -- the only three who have really outplayed the Greek Freak on a per-game basis this season.
Pick 2: PG/SG/SF James Harden, Houston Rockets
Harden has the backing of a front office which has expertly built the Rockets' around his ball-dominant, drive-and-kick abilities. Almost every player is capable of hitting a set 3-pointer. It's why Harden's assists have risen from an elite 7.5 per game last season to a league-leading 11.2 per game this year.
The kicker? Save for backup center Nene, every key contributor is under contract for next season. There's no reason to think Harden will slow down any time soon.
Pick 3: PG Russell Westbrook, Thunder
The Thunder's salary commitments are set to jump from around $91 million to $111 million, without accounting for re-signing either SG Andre Roberson or PF Taj Gibson. Losing some defensive sandpaper to free agency could force Westbrook to re-calibrate his approach on both ends of the floor.
Still, Westbrook was averaging a triple-double well before the addition of Gibson at the trade deadline, and Roberson's presence on the offensive end doesn't directly alter Westbrook's fantasy production in any discernible way.
The strength of the Thunder's playoff performance and whether Westbrook captures the MVP trophy could legitimately alter his approach heading into next season. If 2016-17 is deemed a success, a similar statistical campaign is possible. If not, something has to give, and it will probably come at the expense of Westbrook's fantasy value.
Pick 4: SF/PF Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors
Pick 5: PG Stephen Curry, Warriors
When two elite scorers team up, there are usually three predictable outcomes in fantasy:
- Their mutual presence splits the defense's focus, leading to improved shooting efficiency.
- Their mutual presence causes the sheer quantity of production to drop off slightly.
- The ability to stagger the two stars can lead to fewer minutes per game and more rest days without sacrificing the ability to compete game-to-game.
This season, Durant's points per game fell from 28.2 to 25.3 but his field-goal percentage rose to a career-high 53.7. As a general rule, you should pretty much double-team Durant and Curry whenever they're on the floor.
Pick 6: C Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves
Towns' two biggest competitors at center saw their draft value fall after they teamed up mid-season. There's no reason to think any aspect of Towns' game will regress in year three, after an exceptional sophomore season. He's a burgeoning superstar.
The only standard fantasy categories which didn't match his rookie numbers were FG% -- down from 54.2 to 53.5 percent and a slight regression in the defensive categories. It would be wise to bet on Towns' improved defensive contributions with another season under head coach Tom Thibodeau.
Pick 7: SG/SF Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs will have plenty of decisions to make this offseason in regards to their veteran core. The one constant will be Leonard, who will still be just 26 years old and has improved as a scorer and playmaker in each of his six NBA seasons.
An aging frontcourt could help Leonard's rebounding totals get back closer to seven per game.
Pick 8: PF/C Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
Davis has proven he can be the best player in fantasy under the right conditions and his run of good health this year is encouraging, but he falls out of the top five because of the imperfect fit alongside DeMarcus Cousins -- a fringe top-10 pick.
A full offseason of front office tinkering should bring in some shooters who will spread the floor for Davis and Cousins, but they'll still need to learn to play together. Both will need to further improve their outside shooting and interior scoring for their fantasy potential to really shine.
Pick 9: SF/PF LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
What more does James have to do? At age 32, he's playing 37.5 minutes a night, scoring 26 points and putting up career highs in rebounds and assists.
With six-straight trips to the NBA Finals (and counting), James' body will eventually catch up with his absurd workload. Until the wheels fall off, James will continue to be drafted in the first round.
Pick 10: PG John Wall, Washington Wizards
With averages of 23-4-11 with two steals per game, Wall has basically become Los Angeles Clippers PG Chris Paul for fantasy purposes -- only without the same age-related injury concerns. Considering Paul has been a late first-round pick for the better part of the past decade, it's safe to elevate Wall to the same stature as he hits his stride.
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)