Astros-Yankees: 3 things to know for the AL wild card
The New York Yankees and Alex Rodriguez are back in the playoffs, and they're returning as the underdog, depending on who you ask.
Players from the Yankees and Houston Astros took turns Monday praising the strengths of the other team, even though things weren't exactly cordial the last time these clubs met. Rumble in the Bronx 2 resumes Tuesday with the American League wild-card game, a matchup featuring a pair of aces, lots of big bats, and a berth in the AL Division Series against the Kansas City Royals on the line.
It's Cy Young favorite Dallas Keuchel versus right-handed ace Masahiro Tanaka at Yankee Stadium, and here are the things you should know:
NO REST FOR THE WICKED
Keuchel won 20 games and finished second in AL ERA this season, but none of those stats will help him pitch on three days' rest for the first time in his career. The Astros left-hander sounds unconcerned with throwing on short notice, but history suggests pitching on one less day of rest is no easy task. That holds especially true during the playoffs, and specifically against a fully rested opposing pitcher.
But Tanaka is the least of Keuchel's problems, which include an alarming home run rate on the road (he allowed nine more homers in almost 30 fewer innings away from Minute Maid Park), a pedestrian final two months of starts, and a Yankees lineup that might already be inside his head. Keuchel's strengths, however, should serve him well in the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium - he's the AL leader in groundballs and held lefties to a .177 batting average and .461 OPS.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE?
Tanaka hasn't been quite the $155-million pitcher the Yankees had hoped for this year, but the right-hander's body of work is impressive nonetheless. Despite increasing concern regarding the 26-year-old's elbow entering this spring, Tanaka held opponents to under a walk and hit per inning, while pitching his best over the last month of the season (3.06 ERA, 0.90 WHIP in five starts). Like Keuchel, though, Tanaka's undoing has been the long ball and, unfortunately for him and the Yankees, there's no place quite like home.
Yankee Stadium hosted the fourth-highest home run rate this season, and only the Toronto Blue Jays (232) hit more homers than the big-swinging Astros (230). While most of Houston's power comes from the right side, manager A.J. Hinch figures to have as many as seven players who hit at least 15 homers in his lineup. Tanaka, who ditched his more powerful four-seam fastball this spring over elbow concern, gave up a whopping 17 homers in 14 home starts, and will need to neutralize right-handed sluggers Evan Gattis, George Springer, and Carlos Correa with low, offspeed pitches. If not, this game could be over in a New York minute.
THE LITTLE THINGS
Strategizing and preparing for a one-game playoff seems like an exercise in futility, but if Tuesday does come down to in-game management, look for Girardi to hold the edge.
How Girardi constructs his lineup against the left-handed Keuchel is of great intrigue, but his options off the bench - particularly his veteran bats - could be the difference versus an Astros bullpen inferior to its counterpart.
Bolstered by speedy spark plug Jose Altuve and Houston's other collection of young stars, Hinch's lineup is in many ways more dynamic than Girardi's - which is why this game will likely be decided in its latter stages. As many as nine outs could come from Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, the AL's top strikeout relievers, against the free-swinging boppers from Houston. And don't forget about A-Rod, who never fails to create a headline.