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Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

Reuters

theScore's baseball editors break down the past year for each team, and look ahead to the offseason.

Free agents: Jared Burton, Matt Guerrier, Jason Kubel

Arbitration-eligible players: Brian Duensing, Casey Fien, Tommy Milone, Eduardo Nunez, Trevor Plouffe, Jordan Schafer, Anthony Swarzak

2014 payroll: $85,465,000

What went wrong in 2014?

A season that revolved primarily around minor league development went pretty much as expected in Minnesota, where the Twins stumbled to their third last-place finish in the American League Central in last the four years while waiting for their army of prospects to mature. Though the Twins made significant strides towards becoming a future playoff threat, the club simply wasn't in a position to contend for a playoff berth this past season with a 25-man roster largely devoid of impact talent.

A dearth of effective starting pitching plagued the club in 2014, as only the Colorado Rockies proved worse at run prevention. The club's reconstituted rotation fashioned an unsightly 5.06 ERA while none of the five pitchers to make at least 10 starts last season averaged more than eight strikeouts per nine innings.

The Twins also watched Joe Mauer's value depreciate considerably in his first season as a full-time first baseman. Mauer - who has four years and $92 million remaining on his contract - hit .277/.361/.371 with just four home runs while battling an oblique injury and produced a mere 1.9 WAR, his lowest mark since an injury-shortened 2010 season.

What went right in 2014?

The club's run production improved dramatically from the season prior. A number of young players emerged as above-average offensive contributors in 2014, helping the Twins post a 102 wRC+ that ranked tied for seventh in the majors. Brian Dozier followed up his breakout 2013 campaign with another strong performance, producing 4.6 WAR while blasting 23 home and notching 21 stolen bases. Both Oswaldo Arcia (.220 isolated power) and Kennys Vargas (.181) displayed encouraging power at the plate, while rookie Danny Santana hit .319/.353/.472 over 101 games despite below-average walk and strikeout rates.

Phil Hughes, meanwhile, vindicated the club's decision to hand him a three-year deal with a brilliant performance last season, wherein he crafted a 3.65 ERA (2.65 FIP) while fashioning a 11.63 strikeout-to-walk ratio, the greatest single-season mark in history. The 28-year-old right-hander curtailed the home run issues that plagued him in New York and represented one of the few bright spots on a pitching staff that gave up more runs per game than every other American League team.

Offseason Needs

Starting pitching

General manager Terry Ryan's efforts to bolster his rotation last winter proved insufficient, as the club's starting corps fashioned the worst ERA in the majors for a second successive season. A noticeable lack of high-quality stuff characterized nearly all of the 12 pitchers to make a start for the Twins, whose collective 16.2 percent strikeout rate ranked dead last among American League teams. Despite playing half their games at spacious Target Field, the Twins' rotation yielded 1.14 home runs per nine innings, more than all but four major league clubs.

Top Targets

Brandon McCarthy - A volatile career took a positive turn in 2014, when McCarthy thrived following a midseason trade from the Arizona Diamondbacks to the New York Yankees. McCarthy's strikeout rate exploded after he rediscovered his cutter in New York, helping him author a 2.89 ERA over 14 starts with the Yankees. It remains unclear, however, if the Twins will be able to afford McCarthy, who boasts a 3.44 FIP over the last four years.

Jake Peavy - The 33-year-old right-hander enjoyed something of a resurgence with the San Francisco Giants during the second half of 2014, and represents a considerable upgrade over those tentatively penciled into the back of Minnesota's rotation. More importantly, however, the Twins wouldn't have to forfeit a draft pick to sign Peavy, who crafted a 3.41 strikeout-to-walk throughout his 12-start stint with the Giants.

Left field

No American League club received less value from left field last season than the Twins, who cycled through an underwhelming rotation of Josh Willingham, Jason Kubel, Chris Herrmann, and incumbent starter Jordan Schafer. With a bunch of youngsters poised to infiltrate the lineup next season (e.g. Vargas, Santana, Miguel Sano), it would behoove the Twins to add a veteran left fielder to alleviate the pressure on the club's less-experienced players.

Top Targets

Melky Cabrera - The Twins are unlikely to contend in 2015, but adding Cabrera would put the club in a solid position for 2016 when the club's youngsters will have fully acclimated to the majors and top prospect Byron Buxton will likely have a prominent role. Cabrera - who's poised to command at least a three-year deal - hit .301/.351/.458 (125 wRC+) with 16 homers this past season and boasts a high-contact profile that would fit well with the Twins, who struck out more often than all but seven teams in 2014.

Nelson Cruz - The veteran's presence would add some pop to a lineup that managed a modest .135 isolated power last season and has had just one player reach the 30-homer plateau since 2010. Cruz, however, is reportedly seeking a four-year deal this offseason, and the Twins may not be inclined to shell out major money for a 34-year-old coming off his finest season in years with regression almost certainly looming.

Impact Prospect

Byron Buxton - Only a player as uniquely talented as Buxton could remain the consensus top prospect after enduring as trying a season as the 20-year-old outfielder did in 2014. Buxton emerged as baseball's foremost minor leaguer after hitting .334/.424/.520 with 39 extra-base hits and 55 stolen bases over 125 games in 2013, but a spate of injuries marred his followup campaign. Buxton - the second overall pick in 2012 - logged a mere 31 games last season, missing time with multiple wrist injuries and a concussion before dislocating his finger in the Arizona Fall League. Despite his recent stretch of poor health, Buxton boasts five tools that grade plus or better and could vie for a late-season call-up with a strong performance in 2015.

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