Fact or Fiction: 4 burning questions for the 2nd half
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Baseball's second half begins Friday and the pennant races are just heating up. With so many teams still in the playoff running, there is no shortage of interesting story lines to follow and questions to ask.
Some of theScore's baseball team - myself, Jonah Birenbaum, and Dan Toman, came together to examine four key topics heading into the second half in a game of "fact" or "fiction."
FACT OR FICTION: The Angels are a 100-win team and thus a World Series threat
Jonah Birenbaum: Fact. Frankly, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Angels finished the season with the most wins in the majors, as they boast the league’s most prolific offense and recently fortified their suspect bullpen with a pair of useful veterans. Led by the incomparable Mike Trout, that 22-year-old with a 182 OPS+, the Angels have lost just four times since June 20, and it’s getting increasingly difficult to spot any substantial weakness with their club.
Dan Toman: Fiction, sort of. The Angels are probably not a 100-win team, given the club's 34 second-half road games (where they're 25-22), coupled with 20 games against two tough division rivals - Oakland and Seattle. To reach 100 wins, the Angels have to play .632 baseball from here on out, a pace no team maintained during the first half. Still, this is a playoff-caliber team and a legitimate World Series contender. October baseball featuring Mike Trout. One can only hope.
Drew Fairservice: Mostly fact. It’s reckless to slap a 100-win tag on any team still yet to play 75 games. But the Angels can score runs in bunches in a time when few clubs can. Their pitching might look thing but the defense and ballpark can cover up some holes.
With a potential pitching upgrade headed their way at the trade deadline and two lame ducks in their division, there is no reason to believe both the Angels and Athletics won’t flirt with triple digits.
FACT OR FICTION: The Brewers are the team to beat in the NL Central
JB: Fiction. It’s tough to believe in a team so dangerously devoid of impact talent on the mound, and, not surprisingly, it’s a dearth of effective starting pitching that’s responsible for Milwaukee’s recent slide. They also have no idea when they’ll get their starting shortstop back. The second half is not going to go well for the Brewers.
DT: Fact - they're in first place! But that doesn't mean it's theirs to lose, either. Brewers starters have the second-worst FIP in the NL and after stumbling into the break with 11 losses in 13 games, their good luck appears to be wearing off. Each team in the division has its warts, but the Reds boast the most complete team of the bunch and the best staff 1-through-5. Milwaukee is technically the team to beat, but expect Cincinnati to be the one to do it.
DF: Fiction. This is still the Cardinals race to lose. There is too much talent in the Cards clubhouse to think any team has the edge. The Brewers can play and their starting pitching is better than most think (hi, Wily Peralta!) but St. Louis has a pipeline that cannot be matched. To say nothing of the Reds and Pirates siphoning wins away the rest of the season.
FACT OR FICTION: 2014 will go down as the finest in Clayton Kershaw's career
JB: Fact. Kershaw's magical campaign is simply too evocative of Pedro Martinez for it not to be the finest of his presumptive Hall-of-Fame career. Despite missing the first month of the season with a back strain, Kershaw’s 200 ERA+ and 0.83 WHIP represent personal-bests for the 26-year-old, who’s demonstrating unprecedented command (3.6 BB%) of an ungodly repertoire that’s produced a league-best 34.4% strikeout rate. Kershaw has held his opponents to two runs or fewer in 11 of his 14 starts this season, and will continue to torment the National League’s suspect offenses until it simply isn't fun for him anymore.
DT: Fact, because if it doesn’t we could be witnessing the greatest pitcher of all-time (which, by the way, is entirely possible as long as health remains on his side). His season has been that good. Only one pitcher in the last 103 years finished the year with a lower FIP (Pedro Martinez, 1999), and with 26 of the Dodgers’ remaining 65 games coming against the four worst offenses in the NL, it stands to reason Kershaw could throw another no-hitter (or perfect game).
DF: Fiction. Kershaw is so good he keeps discovering new ways to be even better. The Dodgers defense does him no favors and the early-season injury cost him starts.
As the best in the game refines his approach and invents new ways to embarrass hitters, we can look forward to another year where fortune - be it in home run rate or stranding runners - shines on his already superlative skills.
FACT OR FICTION: June and July represents the "real" 2014 Toronto Blue Jays, not the team we saw in May
JB: Fiction. The most recent permutations of the Blue Jays - those relying on Steve Tolleson, Darin Mastroianni, and Munenori Kawasaki et al - hardly reflect the offensive juggernaut Toronto was before injuries befell, at one point or another, Brett Lawrie, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Adam Lind. No team is built to accommodate serious injuries to so many key members of its lineup, and though depth was never one of the Toronto’s strengths, asking three career minor-leaguers to approximate league-average production for an extended period of time is an unreasonable request.
Restored health will thrust the Blue Jays back into contention in the murky American League East.
DT: Fiction - the Blue Jays are a mix of May, June and July. It's an uneven roster that lacks the depth to withstand injuries and slumps. When healthy, the offense is May-like legit but without another right-handed bat on the bench and holes at catcher and second base, it's a lineup with little margin for error.
Don't let the positive results of Toronto's staff fool you - starting pitching remains a major weakness of this club and unless the front office makes some moves, expect more months like June and July and fewer like May.
DF: Fact, within reason. No, the Blue Jays aren’t going to win 6 games a month for the rest of the season. The gods of injury and woe come for all teams, the Blue Jays aren’t special in this regard.
It is this spate of injuries that revealed their true selves. The greatest predictor of future injury is past injury history, and scant few Blue Jays starters could be described as iron men. The pitching is fine but the injuries inserted crater-like holes into the batting order and the minor league system lacks the high-end prospects to flip for big league replacements.
Hurt is what they were always going to be. Devoid of depth is what they are now and were always going to be. May is a nice month to dream on but hoping to run another “best case scenario” month is folly.