Is Miami stealing signs at Marlins Park?
The Miami Marlins are one of the great stories of this young MLB season. The Marlins, still within the throes of a violent rebuild, were not expected to be very good. Last season, they were not very good. The 2013 Fish featured a terrible, dreadful, offense - one of the worst in recent memory.
The 2014 Marlins aren’t going to win the World Series but they were within a game of the division lead on the first day of June. That’s a big win for a rebuilding franchise. The most significant difference between last year’s 100 loss club and this year’s contender is that offense, suddenly one of the best in the National League.
Their 57 home runs rank them fifth in the senior circuit (they only managed 97, as a team, in 2013). By league-adjusted numbers, their position players rank second in the NL.
The most striking of their numbers is the difference between the way they hit at home compared to on the road. As a young team, there is some expectation they will be more comfortable at home compared to on the road. Of those 57 homers, 30 came at spacious Marlins Park. On the road, the offense is well below average, sitting in the middle of the pack rather than leading the way.
The disparity is great enough that the Braves suspected the Marlins were stealing signs when last they played in Miami, a series Miami swept and punished pitchers Aaron Harang and Alex Wood.
The two teams reconnected this weekend, with the Braves doing the sweeping in South Florida. The Marlins offense sputtered against the Braves staff, scoring just three runs per game. While Fredi Gonzalez insisted the Braves wouldn’t change their signs as the series began and claimed he didn’t believe Miami was stealing signs, Atlanta certainly went out of their way to avoid the Marlins getting a free look.
Harang got the ball Sunday for Atlanta and pitched well, allowing just two runs on five hits and four walks. To their credit, Miami did hit a lot of balls hard, just directly into gloves. The entire time, catcher Evan Gattis used secondary signs, flashing more than one finger to his pitcher even with bases empty, when usually a single sign (one finger for fastball, two for curve) suffices.
Later in the game, Alex Wood entered as a reliever. Again, without runners on base, Gattis went through a series of elaborate signals when calling his pitches.
Breaking down Gattis' signals - the first "round and round" sign tells Wood that he's going to start again. Then, touching his arm and mask, Gattis lets his pitcher know which sign is the "indicator", the sign that precedes the actual pitch call. Then, partially obscured by Wood's head, we see Gattis run through a series of signs usually reserved for situations with a runner on second base.
Seems like a lot of effort for Ed Lucas, doesn't it?
There doesn’t have to be much to it for the Braves to feel like there’s something to it. Something doesn’t add up and there must be a reason. The Marlins could well be swiping signals, no matter how improbable the logistics of exchanging the information might be.
A rudimentary look at some rough numbers suggests there isn’t much in the way of a pattern in Miami’s tendencies. On the whole, the team swings at fewer breaking balls at home compared to on the road, but there is so much noise that any grand conclusions drawn are dubious. (via Baseball Savant)
| 2014 Marlins | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| Sliders taken | 51.6% | 48.1% |
| Curves taken | 61.3% | 61.7% |
| Total breaking balls taken | 55.7% | 52.9% |
When the Braves played in Boston this past week, they did not go to these lengths to avoid sign theft. It is clearly still very front of mind in the Braves clubhouse, even if the manager suggests it’s a non-issue.
If other teams follow Atlanta’s lead and make an effort to switch things up at Marlins Park, it doesn't mean the Marlins are doing anything untoward.
Perhaps the Brave are more sensitive to these concerns than other teams, given their prevailing clubhouse culture (or our perception of it). If the Marlins keep posting huge home/road splits, it doesn't mean there’s anything, ahem, fishy going on.
The Marlins should be suspected as much as any team - which is to say no team is above bending the rules or seeking an edge. The “if you ain’t cheating, you ain’t trying” ethos is still very much alive in baseball today. May it live forever.