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Craig Kimbrel is back, and he's terrifying

Bob DeChiara / USA TODAY Sports / Reuters

Last year, even as Craig Kimbrel stumbled to full-season career worsts in most meaningful statistical categories - WAR, park-adjusted ERA, xFIP, WHIP, etc. - in his first season with the Boston Red Sox, the five-time All-Star didn't blow save at Fenway Park.

Don't expect that to change anytime soon.

As Bostonians flocked to Boylston Street on Monday afternoon to watch the 121st running of the world's most prestigious marathon, Kimbrel was once again nudging the Red Sox past the finish line at Fenway Park, striking out all three batters he faced to lock down a 4-3 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays and notch his third save in as many days.

"Right now, everything feels great," Kimbrel told ESPN's Scott Lauber following the victory. "Hopefully I can keep it going."

Indeed, through the nascent stages of 2017, Kimbrel looks increasingly like the dude who, despite the notable handicap of being reliever, finished in the top nine in National League Cy Young voting every year from 2011-14 (during those halcyon days, Kimbrel authored a 1.51 ERA and 0.88 WHIP while averaging 46 saves per season). He has converted six saves in as many tries - I know, I know, saves are dumb; he also ranks sixth among all pitchers, not just relievers, in win probability added (0.87) - and his 1.29 ERA through seven appearances actually belies stronger defense-independent numbers. Of the 27 batters to face him, 12 have struck out. He hasn't given up a homer; he's only given up three hits total, none of which have gone for extra bases since Josh Bell's 366-foot double on Opening Day. Look at the swing metrics. We're watching classic Kimbrel right now.

Split Contact % SwStr % O-Swing % 1st-pitch strike %
2010-2015 65.1% 16.0% 31.0% 59.1%
2017 64.0% 17.7% 27.1% 58.3%

Kimbrel could get batters to swing and miss in his sleep, though, and the long ball has never been an issue for him, either. Even last year, as he grumbled his way to a near replacement-level season, he racked up strikeouts and suppressed homers at very high levels. As such, for Kimbrel, the most encouraging sign early on in 2017 is that he seems to have regained the control that eluded him so consistently in his first season with Boston. After putting up the third-highest walk rate among qualified relievers a season ago - he handed out free passes more often than Fernando Rodney, for goodness sake - the 28-year-old has issued only two walks in 27 plate appearances this year, and is pounding the strike zone with unparalleled frequency. So far, more than half the pitches he's thrown this season have been in the strike zone; the last time he managed a zone rate above 46.3 percent was back in 2012, when he put up the second-highest ERA+ (399) ever by a 24-year-old reliever (min. 40 GP).

Split BB% Zone %
2010-2015 9.5% 46.3%
2017 7.4% 52.9%

This is, of course, tremendous news for the Red Sox, who managed 93 wins last year but finished 20-24 (.455) in one-run games and watched their combustible relief corps fuel the staff's whopping 12.18 ERA in high-leverage situations. A year later, Boston's bullpen still isn't great, thanks in part to the absences of Tyler Thornburg and Carson Smith - in all likelihood, the reigning American League East champions won't excel at run prevention in 2017, with David Price's timeline to rejoin the rotation still murky, and every starter not named Chris Sale kind of mediocre - but a dominant Kimbrel could add some much-needed marginal wins to a team that probably won't waltz to a second straight division title as easily as many expected.

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