If disappointing Royals rebuild, who will they trade?
The 2017 Kansas City Royals offer a case study of how tenuous success can be at the highest level of professional sports.
After years of false starts, and having dealt away future stars like Zack Greinke and Wil Myers, Kansas City managed astonishing back-to-back World Series appearances in 2014 and 2015, with one championship. Three things happened to make the Royals relevant: several former first-round picks came into their primes at once; Lorenzo Cain - the crown jewel of the Greinke trade - became a .300 hitter; and the bullpen became untouchable.
The Royals aren't so relevant now. First, they hit a wall in 2016, going 81-81 to finish third in the American League Central and out of the playoff race. This season, they sit dead last in the division at 7-12, own MLB's second-worst bullpen ERA (5.90), and have watched a couple of their former first-rounders regress. Their offense has compiled a league-worst .577 OPS. They're the only team that's scored fewer than 64 runs, and it's way fewer: 47.
Some windows don't stay open as long as others. Presuming re-signing their prominent names is off the table, let's examine the Royals' trade outlook if they attempt a rebuild.
Lorenzo Cain
Cain is the Royals' most valuable asset, and he's a free agent at the end of the season. He's been one of the few bats in the lineup to show any signs of life, posting a .313/.429/.375 slash line. He's also walked as often as he's struck out, and he's stolen six bases already.
The Royals would be foolish to hold onto him through the end of the season without using him to restock the cupboard. The problem is finding an appropriate trade partner. Every one of the current division leaders is stacked in the outfield, so Kansas City will have to wait.
If the Seattle Mariners can turn things around, they'd be an ideal fit. Mitch Haniger has been great, but the rest of that outfield has been awful, and they recently designated Leonys Martin for assignment. Though the Mariners are already fast, Cain provides better OBP and contact rates than the likes of Jarrod Dyson.
Mike Moustakas
The other valuable trade chip in the Royals' offense and another pending free agent, Moustakas continues to come into his own. He improved drastically during their World Series season, when he hit .284 with 22 home runs.
This season, Moustakas has driven in 10 runs and scored 10 while hitting .288 with six homers. He and Cain are the only Royals batters hitting above .250. Like Cain, Moustakas looks like a lock to be traded, but he'll fetch less.
The best and most logical fit is the Boston Red Sox. With Pablo Sandoval nursing a bad knee and generally playing poorly, Moustakas represents a definite upgrade. The Red Sox may be reluctant to part with more prospect capital, but Moustakas shouldn't require the same level of talent that Boston sent to Chicago for Chris Sale.
Eric Hosmer
Though Hosmer has been awful at the plate, he makes some sense as a rental for the St. Louis Cardinals. Acquiring a generally reliable first baseman - which Hosmer's been for years - would free up Matt Carpenter to play third base and solidify the infield. It would also give St. Louis another left-handed bat with 25-homer potential.
His struggles would keep the price down, which could inspire the Royals to hold. The Cardinals, however, do have a lot of prospect depth, and Hosmer would be a welcome addition despite his offensive deficiencies.
Alex Gordon and Salvador Perez
Gordon, who's making more than $20 million per year from 2018 through 2020, is batting .178 with no home runs. His 2016 wasn't much better - he hit .220 and struck out in nearly 30 percent of his plate appearances. Gordon is pretty much untradeable until closer to the end of his contract.
Perez is also locked up long term, though at a somewhat more team-friendly rate. The concern with Perez is wear and tear: He's played at least 128 games at catcher over the past four seasons. Still, he's 26 and under control through 2021. The Royals aren't moving him.
The pitching staff
Danny Duffy isn't going anywhere either. He's under contract through 2021 at a reasonable annual sum, maxing out at $15.5 million in the final year. Ian Kennedy is an interesting trade option, though, since he has an opt-out clause after this season. He's pitching well, and could land a hefty raise if he decides to walk.
The Royals probably should have traded Jason Vargas already. He's pitching far above his career numbers (1.40 ERA and a 9.82 K/9). A strong left-handed starting pitcher with a killer changeup would complement many teams. The Baltimore Orioles would be a good match, as the rotation is thin and they continue to defy expectations by remaining competitive. Beyond them, any team still in the race - fingers crossed for the Colorado Rockies - by mid-July will gladly look for reinforcements.
Every bullpen arm should be made available, and early struggles are unlikely to scare too many suitors away.
With a lengthy list of pending free agents on the roster, expect the Royals to consider almost everyone expendable - and expect them to look very different in 2018.
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)