Ranking baseball's best starting rotations
"I think we have the best starting rotation in baseball, hands down," Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman said recently, confidently advocating for his club's group of starters.
"We have the best rotation right now, that's the way I feel," Cleveland Indians starter Danny Salazar proclaimed. "We have the best rotation not just in the American League, but in baseball."
So what gives? Both young starters enter 2017 booming with confidence, and rightly so, as the Blue Jays' and Indians' starting rotations ranked among the best in the league last season.
Despite the fearless declarations made by Stroman and Salazar, there also happens to be a considerable amount of talent in opposing teams' starting rotations that could make the same argument. To put an end to the debate, here are the seven best starting rotations ranked in order:
7. Blue Jays
Projected starting rotation
| Pitcher | 2016 ERA | Projected 2017 WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | 3.00 | 3.4 |
| Marcus Stroman | 4.37 | 3.2 |
| J.A. Happ | 3.18 | 2.6 |
| Marco Estrada | 3.48 | 1.9 |
| Francisco Liriano* | 4.69 | 1.7 |
*With the Pirates, Blue Jays
The team that hails from the north enters the new season with the same group that helped them advance to its second straight American League Championship Series. Sanchez's dominance last year as a starter led to the 24-year-old winning the AL's ERA title, and with Liriano in the fold as the team's fifth arm, the Blue Jays are still right there among the best.
6. Indians
Projected starting rotation
| Pitcher | 2016 ERA | Projected 2017 WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Corey Kluber | 3.14 | 5.2 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 3.32 | 4.7 |
| Danny Salazar | 3.87 | 3.4 |
| Trevor Bauer | 4.35 | 1.7 |
| Josh Tomlin | 4.32 | 1.5 |
The Indians had some tough luck with their rotation staying healthy, but if everything falls into place, Salazar's bold proclamation could end up being true. Led by Kluber, who constantly finds himself in Cy Young conversation, the Indians were one win short of a World Series title. Carrasco wasn't around in the postseason and Salazar had just returned from injury, proving the club has the talent to make serious noise with a healthy starting five.
5. Red Sox*
Projected starting rotation
| Pitcher | 2016 ERA | Projected 2017 WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | 3.34 | 5.5 |
| David Price | 3.99 | 4.7 |
| Rick Porcello | 3.15 | 3.8 |
| Drew Pomeranz* | 4.59 | 2.1 |
| Steven Wright | 3.33 | 1.0 |
*With Padres, Red Sox
The asterisk comes as a result of potentially devastating news awaiting on Price's elbow, as the talented left-hander will visit renowned surgeon Dr. James Andrews after undergoing an MRI on Thursday. If Price needs Tommy John surgery and misses 2017, it would almost surely remove the club from this list. Until then, the Red Sox starting three of Sale, Porcello, and Price are among the best in baseball after Porcello's first Cy Young award followed by acquiring one of the game's premier starters in Sale.
4. Cubs
Projected starting rotation
| Pitcher | 2016 ERA | Projected 2017 WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Lester | 2.44 | 4.5 |
| Jake Arrieta | 3.10 | 4.1 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 2.15 | 3.3 |
| John Lackey | 3.35 | 2.9 |
| Mike Montgomery* | 2.52 | 1.2 |
*With the Mariners, Cubs
A team fresh off a World Series title qualifying for a "best starting rotations" list isn't exactly unprecedented. Thanks to Hendricks breaking out as a Cy Young candidate and Lester being Lester, the Cubs should remain among baseball's most dangerous rotations. Somewhat lost in the conversation is Arrieta who, despite taking a minor step back in 2016, should still be considered one of the more reliable and effective starters in baseball.
3. Nationals
Projected starting rotation
| Pitcher | 2016 ERA | Projected 2017 WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 2.96 | 6.0 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 3.60 | 4.4 |
| Tanner Roark | 2.86 | 1.9 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 4.57 | 2.9 |
| Joe Ross | 3.43 | 2.5 |
Much like the Blue Jays and Indians, the talented Nationals turn to the same group to lead the charge for 2017 - one with considerable talent. If Strasburg could make more than 25 starts, the Nationals would move up this list, as he's usually an injury waiting to happen. Still, Scherzer and Strasburg are a formidable 1-2 punch and any team in the majors would love to have Ross as its fifth starter - a pitcher with intriguing upside who was out for much of 2016 with a shoulder injury.
2. Mets
Projected starting rotation
| Pitcher | 2016 ERA | Projected 2017 WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Noah Syndergaard | 2.61 | 5.6 |
| Jacob deGrom | 3.04 | 3.9 |
| Matt Harvey | 4.86 | 2.7 |
| Steven Matz | 3.40 | 3.2 |
| Robert Gsellman | 2.63 | 1.4 |
The Mets quietly possess one of, if not the deepest starting rotation in baseball. Syndergaard has emerged as an ace at the age of 24 and is poised to win multiple Cy Young awards in his career. Not to be outdone is deGrom, who suffered through elbow problems last year, but should rebound as an elite starter followed by the development of Matz. Haven't even mentioned Harvey, aka Batman, who, as a third starter, is quite the luxury for the Mets.
1. Dodgers
Projected starting rotation
| Pitcher | 2016 ERA | Projected 2017 |
|---|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw | 1.69 | 7.4 |
| Rich Hill* | 2.12 | 2.8 |
| Julio Urias | 3.25 | 1.9 |
| Kenta Maeda | 3.48 | 2.8 |
| Scott Kazmir | 4.56 | 1.8 |
*With Athletics, Dodgers
Most major-league teams with Kershaw as their ace would be found on a "best rotations" list, but what the Dodgers have going for them on top of that is baseball's deepest rotation. Kershaw is coming off a back injury that limited him to 21 starts, but he's now healthy, meaning the Dodgers should reign supreme as the league's best. At 36 years old, Hill, who was rewarded with a three-year, $48-million deal this offseason, has proven to be a dependable and elite No. 2 starter. He's followed by Urias, a 20-year-old phenom who could take an even bigger step in 2017 and is backed with depth unlike any other rotation, including Brandon McCarthy, Hyun-Jin Ryu (if healthy), and Alex Wood.
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)
WAR projection courtesy: FanGraphs.com