Which pitching staff will be 2017's fantasy surprise?

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The Toronto Blue Jays' pitching staff surprised everyone in 2016 by finishing with the best team ERA in the American League and sixth overall. Their 100 combined quality starts tied with the World Series Champion Chicago Cubs for the highest number in the league. Just five teams allowed fewer walks, and no AL team held opponents to a lower batting average.

The Blue Jays entered the 2016 fantasy draft season with no certified elite pitchers as individuals. Even sophomore RHP Roberto Osuna, who was coming off a 20-save season with a 2.58 ERA in 2015, was expected to lose his closing job to offseason-acquisition RHP Drew Storen. He hung onto the job and excelled, but not before he was allowed to go undrafted in many leagues.

Here's how their starters ranked at the beginning and end of the 2016 season under standard 5x5 scoring:

* ADPs courtesy Fantasy Pros

Here's a look at the performance of the five pitchers:

As seen from both charts, Stroman was the only disappointment. He entered the season as the only true fantasy prospect from the rotation and horribly failed to deliver on his ADP. His second-half numbers of a 3.68 ERA and 1.24 WHIP would've moved him ahead of Dickey and into the fantasy SP3 realm with Estrada.

With no draft stock invested in any of the other four, Dickey was the only one to not earn his permanent spot in lineups. He did prove to be a streaming option at times and posted ERAs below 3.50 in May, June and August, pitching at least 29 innings in all three months.

Photo courtesy Action Images

How to qualify

Here's the keys to look for when seeking out 2017's most valuable pitching staffs:

• Good defensive catcher: Blue Jays C Russell Martin ranked fifth last season in framing runs, per Baseball Prospectus. Martin hasn't finished outside the top 10 in any of his 11 MLB seasons. Dickey's personal catcher and Martin's backup, Josh Thole, finished 21st with a rating nine runs below Martin.
  
• Good offense: Toronto finished the 2016 season with the ninth-most team runs in the league. The high-powered offense allowed the starters to go deeper into games, pitching in fewer high-leverage situations.
  
• Top five starters outside the top 75 ADP: The 2017 candidates will need to lack name value and top-round draft options. The lower the player's preseason ADP the more valuable they become as potential early-season waiver wire grabs.
  
• Health: The wildcard in the equation, the biggest key for the success of the Jays' 2016 rotation was health, with all five starters going at least 169 innings. The young Sanchez had his innings managed near the end of the year, while Dickey was eventually replaced in the rotation by trade-deadline acquisition LHP Francisco Liriano.

The Candidates

(Photo courtesy Action Images)

Houston Astros

The addition of C Brian McCann, acquired in a trade with the New York Yankees, bolsters both the Astros offense and rotation. Houston ranked 15th in runs scored last year but made offensive improvements at 1B, C, 3B, and both corner outfield spots.

Keuchel regressed too far in 2016 from his 2015 Cy Young victory. His xFIP was more than a full run better than his ERA last season. McHugh and McCullers have shown what they're capable of in fully healthy seasons. Morton was limited to just 17 1/3 innings with the Philadelphia Phillies last season, but his prospects improve with a move to the weak AL West after spending the majority of his 161-start career with the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Central.

(Photo courtesy Getty Images)

St. Louis Cardinals

C Yadier Molina's defensive play is worsening ever so slightly, but he still graded as the ninth-best catcher in framing runs last season. The Cardinals suffered a big blow when losing RHP Alex Reyes for the entirety of the season early in Spring Training but the loss will be mitigated with the return of Lynn who missed all of last year.

After a horrendous start to the 2016 season, Wainwright returned to his old ways for June and July, before falling off again in August and September. Some more consistent play will keep owners happy. Martinez slightly flexes the criteria with his ADP of 70, as owners expect improvement on his breakout 2016 season. Both his FIP and xFIP indicate negative regression to his 3.04 ERA, but he's a fairly safe bet for 200 innings and 200 Ks.

(Photo courtesy Action Images)

Oakland Athletics

The Athletics enter the year as the darkhorse to follow the Blue Jays model. Their offense isn't particularly frightening, though it is improved with the additions of 3B Trevor Plouffe, OF Rajai Davis and a full year of 3B Ryon Healy. Gray will begin the season on the disabled list due to a lat strain, but he should return by mid-April.

Cs Stephen Vogt and Josh Phegley are not great defenders, both grading negatively in framing runs over the past several seasons. If/when Bruce Maxwell forces his way to regular starts behind the plate, the staff should see an improvement. He has been among the best framers in the minor leagues for several seasons. Owners can't read a sleepers article without seeing the names of Manaea and Cotton, while Graveman is a breakout candidate.