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5 Bold NL Fantasy Predictions

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National League | American League

Billy Hamilton will steal 100 bases

A 100-steal season has only been done 21 times in the history of Major League Baseball. Vince Coleman was the last player to do it back in 1987. Thirty years later, Billy Hamilton will join the 100-steal club.

Hamilton stole 58 bases last season despite missing 43 games due to injury. At this rate, he would have stolen 78 bases had he played 162 games.

You need to factor in that Hamilton's OBP was only .321. Given that his walk rate and ground ball rate have improved in three consecutive years, it's reasonable to think he could increase his OBP to .350.

One last tidbit that needs to be accounted for is that Hamilton hit leadoff just 46 times. There's no reason for him not to hit leadoff every game he starts this coming season. This will not only lead to more plate appearances, but less times where he comes to the plate with clogged basepaths that inhibit his base-stealing prowess.

He might be the only player in fantasy baseball that can single-handedly win you one category each and every week.

Matt Carpenter will be a top-30 fantasy player

Carpenter finished with the third-highest hard-hit percentage in baseball last season, and also had the second-lowest soft-hit percentage. When you hit that many balls hard, so few soft and have the eighth-best line drive percentage, your BABIP should be much higher than the league average - but Carpenter's wasn't.

Those drafting Carpenter should except a slash line of .300/.400/.500 with 25 homers, 100 RBIs and 100 runs. As a player with an ADP of 64, per FantasyPros, this would provide immense value.

Bryce Harper will hit 50 home runs

No one has hit 50 homers in a season since Chris Davis in 2013. If there's one player in baseball who can do it, it's Harper. The only player in baseball with more raw power might be Marlins OF Giancarlo Stanton.

Even though 50 homers would more than double Harper's total of 24 from a season ago, Harper is no stranger to approaching this total. He launched 42 homers as recently as 2015.

Last season Harper saw just 38.2 percent of pitches inside the strike zone. This mark was the second-lowest in all of baseball.

With a full season of Trea Turner (.370 OBP in 324 plate appearances) and the addition of Adam Eaton (.362 OBP last three years) serving as table setters, pitchers will be forced to pitch Harper more aggressively. Ben Revere (.260 OBP) and Jayson Werth (.335 OBP) spent a good chunk of the year hitting first and second last year.

Aaron Nola will be a top-20 SP

A pitcher's ERA and his FIP should be roughly the same. Nola, however, had a 4.78 ERA and a 3.08 FIP. This 1.7 difference between the two was the largest gap of any pitcher who logged at least 100 innings last season.

After diving into the numbers, what killed Nola was his ineffectiveness once runners reached base. Take a look:

Situation BA OBP SLG
Men on .326 .387 .486
Bases empty .223 .265 .337

Some may theorize that pitching with runners on base was a psychological issue, his mechanics aren't as sound from the stretch or that the defense's inability to shift with runners on dramatically hurt him since he's a ground ball pitcher.

Call me optimistic, but I'm going to give Nola the benefit of the doubt here. I think it was just plain old bad luck.

Nola is currently being drafted as SP45, so a top-20 SP season would catch many by surprise.

Noah Syndergaard, not Clayton Kershaw, will finish as the top fantasy pitcher

Kershaw is still the best pitcher on the planet - and maybe one of the best of all-time - but it's not as far-fetched as it may seem that he won't finish as the top fantasy pitcher. He has averaged 212 innings over the past seven years. That's a lot of stress on the arm. He endured an injury-plagued 2016 season. Furthermore, he is due for a season with an ERA worse than his FIP.

Syndergaard posted a 2.60 ERA last season with a FIP of 2.29. He has the stuff to lower his FIP to 2.00, which could conceivably lead to a sub-2.00 ERA.

Syndergaard managed 218 strikeouts in just 183.2 innings of work. Now that his innings likely won't be monitored, he should be expected to log between 210-220 innings. If this is the case, he could easily rack up 300 Ks without a vast improvement to his K rate.

Kershaw still needs to be the first pitcher taken in every league, but if there's one man God who can dethrone him as top fantasy pitcher, it's Thor.

(Photos courtesy Action Images)

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