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Finding a home: Why Orioles will sign Trumbo

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports / Reuters

After outfielder Jose Bautista officially signed with the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday, the free-agent crop of power hitters lost one more potential candidate for teams to chase.

With Bautista's subtraction from the open market, outfielder Mark Trumbo may have become the most appealing target for teams in need of some additional pop, and the Baltimore Orioles make the most sense as a possible landing spot for the 31-year-old.

Here are three reasons why the Orioles will sign the reigning home run king.

Perfect fit

The Orioles pulled a fast one on the Seattle Mariners in December of 2015, acquiring Trumbo and pitcher C.J. Riefenhauser in exchange for catcher Steve Clevenger.

In his first season with Baltimore, Trumbo had a career year, belting 47 homers, driving in 108 runs, and posting a .850 OPS.

His swing is obviously made for the hitter-friendly confines of Camden Yards, where he belted 25 of his home runs, and 15 of his long balls came against opponents in the American League East, whom the Orioles play the majority of their games against.

If Trumbo were to sign elsewhere, it would be hard envisioning one of Seth Smith - whose season-high home run total was 17 in 2010 with the Colorado Rockies - or Hyun Soo Kim (six home runs last season) producing the same kind of power the Orioles have a fondness for.

They may get a bargain

Executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette has been negotiating with Trumbo's camp for much of the offseason, with a number of different figures being reported, but the patient executive hasn't budged, and appears to be winning the staring contest.

After Trumbo was reportedly seeking a contract in the $70 million-$75 million range and reportedly turned down a three-year, $41-million deal, the Orioles pulled their offer to the heavy-hitting outfielder.

Duquette has since said they'd be willing to go alternate routes and would gladly absorb the draft-pick compensation they'd acquire if Trumbo signed elsewhere. Since then, Trumbo's camp appears willing to sign a discounted three-year deal in the $40 million-$50 million range, sources tell FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal.

If Duquette can find the necessary funds to make Trumbo the three-year offer he's requesting, they'd be getting a bargain if they could acquire him at around $13 million a year.

For comparison's sake, the Houston Astros signed outfielder Josh Reddick for $52 million over four years, which is an average annual salary of $13 million.

PLAYER G H HR RBI OPS WAR
Mark Trumbo 159 157 47 108 .850 2.2
Josh Reddick 115 112 10 37 .749 1.2

AL East is still a beast

Not only will the Blue Jays almost certainly remain a contender for the AL East crown after re-signing Bautista, but the Boston Red Sox may have the best team in the division after acquiring Chris Sale in a blockbuster trade this past December. Adding the tough southpaw to a rotation already boasting Cy Young winners Rick Porcello and David Price to go with one of the game's best offenses creates a tough situation for the Orioles to succeed in.

Sure, Baltimore could set its sights on merely squeaking into the postseason as one of the wild-card teams like last year, but other teams in the AL that missed the playoffs in 2016 - such as the Astros and Mariners - have improved their clubs, while the Detroit Tigers open 2017 with a similar squad after just narrowly missing the postseason.

The Orioles are going to have to do something if they want to get over the hump, but losing Trumbo and his powerful stroke isn't the type of move that will make them better any time soon.

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