Ranking the players on 2017 HOF ballot
Just what you wanted - more election talk.
On Monday, the Baseball Writers' Association of America released the 2017 Hall of Fame ballot, and it features both a coterie of compelling holdovers and some highly decorated first-timers, including Ivan Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, and Vladimir Guerrero. You know the rules. A player must be named on 75 percent of the submitted ballots for election, and anyone who can't get votes from at least five percent of the BBWAA is booted from subsequent ballots. Let's take a look at who's got a shot - and who doesn't - at baseball immortality this winter, yeah?
The (near) locks
| PLAYER | MLB Seasons | 2016 Vote | Years on Ballot | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Bagwell | 15 | 71.6% | 6 | 80.2 |
| Tim Raines | 23 | 69.8% | 9 | 66.4 |
Whispers, not evidence, of performance-enhancing drug use have kept Jeff Bagwell out of Cooperstown more than a half-decade longer than one might've expected, but the Houston Astros icon should assume his rightful place in the Hall of Fame in 2017 after falling just 15 votes shy of induction last year. He earned it. Only six first basemen in history compiled a higher JAWS score - career WAR averaged with seven-year peak WAR - than Bagwell, who smashed 449 homers, swiped 202 bases, and put up a .948 OPS (149 OPS+) over his 15 seasons in Houston.
Tim Raines, meanwhile, also figures to get his plaque this year - his last on the ballot - especially with Jonah Keri campaigning for his induction with unrivaled gusto. The best leadoff hitter in history not named Rickey Henderson, Raines, with his career .294/.385/.425 slash line, boasts the eighth-highest JAWS score among left fielders and is one of two players in history to notch at least 500 steals, 150 homers, and 100 triples.
On the bubble
| PLAYER | MLB Seasons | 2016 Vote | Years on Ballot | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Bonds | 22 | 44.3% | 4 | 164.4 |
| Roger Clemens | 24 | 45.2% | 4 | 133.7 |
| Trevor Hoffman | 18 | 68.3% | 1 | 26.1 |
| Mike Mussina | 18 | 43% | 3 | 82.2 |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 21 | N/A | 0 | 68.9 |
| Curt Schilling | 20 | 52.3% | 4 | 79.8 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 16 | N/A | 0 | 54.3 |
It probably won't happen this year, but rest assured Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens will one day get into the Hall of Fame, because irrespective of how you view Cooperstown, whether you see it as a museum or a shrine, it just can't remain a credible institution without recognizing the best position player and possibly the best pitcher ever to play the game. Incidentally, Rodriguez, a defensive god who also won seven Silver Slugger awards and remains one of the greatest in history to don the tools of ignorance, could find himself a first-ballot inductee if voters ignore Jose Canseco's claim that he injected Pudge with steroids back in the day.
Not this year
| PLAYER | MLB Seasons | 2016 Vote | Years on Ballot | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Cameron | 17 | N/A | 0 | 50.7 |
| Jeff Kent | 17 | 16.6% | 3 | 56.1 |
| Edgar Martinez | 18 | 43.4% | 7 | 65.5 |
| Fred McGriff | 22 | 20.9% | 9 | 56.9 |
| Jorge Posada | 17 | N/A | 0 | 44.7 |
| Manny Ramirez | 19 | N/A | 0 | 66.3 |
| Gary Sheffield | 22 | 11.6% | 2 | 62.1 |
| Lee Smith | 18 | 34.1% | 14 | 26.6 |
| Sammy Sosa | 18 | 7% | 4 | 60.1 |
| Javier Vazquez | 14 | N/A | 0 | 53.9 |
| Billy Wagner | 16 | 10.5% | 1 | 24.1 |
| Larry Walker | 17 | 15.5% | 6 | 68.7 |
The campaign to keep Edgar Martinez out of Cooperstown is a puzzling one, given that one could reasonably argue he was a better designated hitter than David Ortiz, who's almost certainly getting into the Hall of Fame five years from now. Maybe voters will feel differently down the road, though, and perhaps they'll also warm up to Larry Walker, the Canadian expat who compiled more career WAR than Hall of Fame right fielders Tony Gwynn, Enos Slaughter, and Harry Heilman. Ramirez might have a tough time getting in at all, given his sordid history of PED use, but the dude was also among the top-10 greatest right-handed hitters ever.
Falling off the ballot
| PLAYER | MLB Seasons | 2016 Vote | Years on Ballot | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Blake | 13 | N/A | 0 | 22.3 |
| Pat Burrell | 12 | N/A | 0 | 19.0 |
| Orlando Cabrera | 15 | N/A | 0 | 24.6 |
| J.D. Drew | 14 | N/A | 0 | 45.9 |
| Carlos Guillen | 14 | N/A | 0 | 25.4 |
| Derrek Lee | 15 | N/A | 0 | 34.5 |
| Julio Lugo | 12 | N/A | 0 | 13.9 |
| Melvin Mora | 13 | N/A | 0 | 27.3 |
| Magglio Ordonez | 15 | N/A | 0 | 36.6 |
| Edgar Renteria | 16 | N/A | 0 | 35.2 |
| Arthur Rhodes | 20 | N/A | 0 | 17.6 |
| Aaron Rowand | 11 | N/A | 0 | 23.6 |
| Freddy Sanchez | 10 | N/A | 0 | 15.7 |
| Matt Stairs | 19 | N/A | 0 | 12.3 |
| Jason Varitek | 15 | N/A | 0 | 24.3 |
| Tim Wakefield | 19 | N/A | 0 | 27.4 |
Fine players, they were, but it's highly unlikely any of these guys are on the 2018 Hall of Fame ballot. This group did provide some pretty swell memories, though. Who could forget that image of 20-year-old Edgar Renteria dropping that single into center field to lift the Marlins to a World Series championship in 1997? Remember that year Derrek Lee hit 46 bombs and 50 doubles? Magglio's pennant-clinching blast in Game 4 of the 2006 ALCS? Good times.