Skip to content

Playoff Probabilities: Projections & elimination numbers

Kevin Sousa / USA TODAY Sports

Here are the the latest projections and playoff probabilities heading into the final week of the season.

Note: Division (DIV%), playoffs (POFF%), rest-of-season winning percentage (rosW%), and wild-card (WC%) probabilities are calculated by FanGraphs.

Courtesy of MLB.com, an elimination number is the combination of wins (by the first-place team) and losses (of the trailing team) that will eliminate the trailing team from winning the division or wild card. The elimination number for the second-place team is the "magic number" for the first-place team. "E" indicates the team has been eliminated from winning the division or wild card.

AL EAST

TEAM DIV% POFF% rosW% E#
BOS 99.7 100.0 .549 -
TOR 0.3 93.9 .524 2
BAL 0.0 67.2 .490 E
NYY 0.0 0.0 .443 E
TB 0.0 0.0 .494 E

AL CENTRAL

TEAM DIV% POFF% rosW% E#
CLE 99.9 100.0 .533 -
DET 0.1 26.8 .538 1
KC 0.0 0.0 .482 E
CWS 0.0 0.0 .506 E
MIN 0.0 0.0 .473 E

AL WEST

TEAM DIV% POFF% rosW% E#
TEX 100.0 100.0 .562 -
SEA 0.0 8.6 .538 E
HOU 0.0 3.4 .525 E
LAA 0.0 0.0 .487 E
OAK 0.0 0.0 .453 E

AL WILD CARD

TEAM WC% WCE#
TOR 93.6 -
BAL 67.2 -
DET 26.8 6
SEA 8.6 5
HOU 3.4 4

NL EAST

TEAM DIV% POFF% rosW% E#
WAS 100.0 100.0 .600 -
NYM 0.0 88.0 .563 E
MIA 0.0 0.0 .442 E
PHI 0.0 0.0 .426 E
ATL 0.0 0.0 .474 E

NL CENTRAL

TEAM DIV% POFF% rosW% E#
CHC 100.0 100.0 .632 -
STL 0.0 57.6 .596 E
PIT 0.0 0.1 .425 E
MIL 0.0 0.0 .434 E
CIN 0.0 0.0 .347 E

NL WEST

TEAM DIV% POFF% rosW% E#
LAD 100.0 100.0 .605 -
SF 0.0 54.3 .505 E
COL 0.0 0.0 .492 E
SD 0.0 0.0 .382 E
ARI 0.0 0.0 .479 E

NL WILD CARD

TEAM WC% WCE#
NYM 88.8 -
STL 57.6 7
SF 54.4 -
PIT 0.1 3

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox