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Why crashing out in the group stage is the next best thing to winning the World Cup

Tony O'Brien / Action Images

In the opening match of Euro 2000, Oliver Bierhoff scored what Germany thought was a late winner against Romania in their first group stage match, but it was ruled offside.

It may have been the most important scratched off goal in German football history.

Expectations for the national team were very low ahead of the tournament. Gabriel Marcotti’s team preview for SI claimed Erich Ribbeck’s side was “...possibly the worst side Germany has fielded in an international tournament since before [Lothar] Matthäus was born.”

And indeed, despite the presence of seven players who helped Germany win the same tournament four years before, the national team had a paucity of bona fide stars to pave over the field-length gaps between Oliver Kahn, Christian Ziegler, Oliver Bierhof and Matthäus. Germany simply didn’t have enough talent.

Nevertheless, luck still played a role in Die Mannschaft’s early exit from the tournament co-hosted by Belgium and the Netherlands. Though the team was markedly awful, they were still only a few chances away from advancing out of a lacklustre group.

Oliver Bierhoff was judged offside against Romania in their opening match and then picked up a calf injury in training, putting him out of the tournament. Ulf Kirsten missed a sitter against England in game two, a game in which Germany stormed the English goal. Germany faced Portugal in a must-win game without Christian Ziege and Jens Jeremies, and lost 3-0. Though Germany were poor, they were not necessarily “destined” to lose.

In fact, had Bierhoff scored in that first game against Romania, Germany would have progressed to meet Italy in the quarterfinals even if they lost their next two matches. After that, as the old saying goes, “anything could have happened.”

Why does this matter? Because by crashing out of Euro 2000, Germany kicked off one of the most influential football reform projects in the nation’s history. As an official DFB report put it, following the national’s early exit “the German football association called things to an emergency halt.” What happened next influenced not only the national team, but the whole of German football as well.

From the Guardian:

German football is booming, reaping the rewards of the strategy drawn up after their dismal performances at Euro 2000, when Germany finished bottom of their group. Forced into an overhaul of youth football, the DFB, the Bundesliga and the clubs decided that the development of more technically proficient homegrown players would be in everyone's best interests. This led to the creation of academies right across the top two divisions.

Investment increased in academies each and every year, with an emphasis on improving coaching standards and focusing on developing fewer “bruisers” and more technically adept players. The result saw the emergence of a young generation of international German stars, players like Mario Goetze, Marco Reus, Mesut Ozil, Thomas Mueller, Toni Kroos, Mats Hummels, and Julian Draxler.

Yet while the Euro 2000 debacle is often cited as the “cause” for all this, it was more likely a catalyst for a process that began as early as 1998 when Germany lost to Croatia in the quarterfinals. As Rafael Honigstein wrote for SI for the 2010 World Cup, the academy reforms were proposed in May of 1999 along with calls for nation wide “talent centres” for kids aged 10-17 in response to a growing crisis in German talent, despite winning Euro 96.

Football analysts often criticize media for over-emphasis on national team results in international tournaments, because of the small sample of games involved and the strong influence of random variation on results. Yet as Bierhoff’s near miss in 2000 demonstrates, sometimes this overemphasis can be used as a force for positive change. Timing is everything here; Germany already had a list of viable reforms on the table they could push in the event of disaster. As Winston Churchill said, “never let a good crisis go to waste.”

Keep this in mind should your national team flop over the next two weeks, and have your arguments ready. Failing to get out of the group stage at a World Cup may be the next best thing to winning it.

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