Bayern beware: Nico Gaitan can engineer Benfica upset

Pep Guardiola is a bad liar. That, or a far more pessimistic individual than many of us had previously realised.

Speaking ahead of Bayern Munich’s Champions League quarter-final first leg against Benfica, he proclaimed with a straight face that "I really don't think we are the favourites going into this [tie]."

Come on, Pep, pull the other one. The experts, bookmakers, and historians would all tell you otherwise. Bayern has reached the semi-finals of this competition for four seasons running, whereas Benfica has never gone further than the quarters since it was rebranded from the European Cup back in 1992.

Related - Cult Heroes and Club Icons: Benfica's Curse of Bela Guttman

It would be no shock to see Bayern sew up progress by the end of the first leg in Munich. The Germans have won their last 10 European home games by an aggregate margin of 40-6. The last Portuguese team to visit, Porto, got humiliated 6-1 in April of last year.

And yet maybe, just maybe, Pep does have a legitimate cause for concern. No sensible analysis could argue that Benfica boasts a stronger squad than its host, but the Portuguese side does have experience causing upsets on the road in Europe this season.

Benfica did it in the last round, beating Zenit in St Petersburg. But even more impressive was the victory away to Atletico Madrid back in September.

The Spaniards had not lost a European home game in two-and-a-half years. The likes of Barcelona, Juventus, Chelsea and Real Madrid had all failed to conquer the Calderon in that time. None of those teams even managed to score a goal. Atletico had conceded just twice in its last 11 Champions League matches on home turf.

Benfica matched that figure in one evening, recovering from a goal down to win 2-1. The Portuguese side had Jackson Martínez to thank for blowing more than one opportunity for Atletico, but most of the victory was owed to the brilliance of Nico Gaitan.

It was he who scored Benfica’s opportunistic equaliser, crashing home a left-footed finish after a cross from the right skipped off a defender’s head and fell to him at the back post. And it was Gaitan again who set up the winner, sending a perfectly-measured cross in the left that eluded Filipe Luis to reach Goncalo Guedes - who fired into the corner of the net.

Nor was this the sum of Gaitan’s contributions. He attempted more passes in the final third than any other teammate, and yet also finished second among Benfica players for tackles attempted. He was, quite simply, the most decisive player on the pitch.

The same could be said of his performance away to Zenit last month. There, too, Gaitan finished with a goal and an assist as his team rebounded from an early deficit to win.

This is not to paint Benfica as a one-man team. If the Aguias have won 19 of their last 20 games across all competitions, it is because manager Rui Vitoria has built a side that is fluid and sometimes spectacular, from the energetic 18-year-old Renato Sanches in midfield to the ruthless 32-year-old Jonas up front - whose 30 league goals have put him in the running to win the European Golden Shoe.

There is quality throughout the side, and on the bench as well. That much was in evidence against Zenit, when a combination of injuries and suspension deprived Benfica of three-quarters of its starting defence, plus goalkeeper Julio Cesar.

Gaitan, though, remains the star of this Benfica side, a true standout talent. One that has often been overlooked, on account of playing outside of Europe’s top five leagues.

At 28 years old, he is no emerging prospect. Gaitan has been pulling the strings at Benfica for six years now, and contributing to some outlandishly good goals along the way.

There was one in particular, against Sporting two years ago, that showcased many of his best qualities: the strength to hold of one defender, the speed of thought to deploy a Cruyff turn to get away from another and then the soft touch to cushion a volleyed cross into the path of Rodrigo Lima.

Linked for years with Manchester United, Gaitan’s failure to move on from Benfica has made it easy for his doubters to believe that he was nothing more than a YouTube star, lacking the more substantive talents required to cut it elsewhere. But no lesser a talent than Xavi said recently that: "I have no doubt Gaitan could play for one of the top clubs in Spain."

The truth may simply be that Gaitan is happy with his life at Benfica. In interviews, he comes across as a contented individual, not a man inclined to believe that the grass will always be greener on the other side. He had been reluctant to move to Portugal in the first place.

"I have to be honest, at the time I did not want to leave Boca Juniors," he told Marca. "I had played there all my life, but it was a good offer for me and for the club … now I am very happy to be at Benfica. I feel the same as I did when I was at Boca Juniors - now I’m at Benfica I don’t want to leave here."

And to those who would accuse him of lacking ambition, this season’s European run provides an eloquent response. Contrary to Guardiola’s claims, Benfica is the heavy underdog against Bayern. But the Portuguese side is not necessarily doomed from the start.